Betting and DFS Top 15: John Deere Classic (2024)

Written By Kevin Clifford

Overview

Another week full of hope that I might scrape out some money from my lineups. As players start gearing up for the end of the season and the last major of the season in a couple of weeks, we start to some of the more premier guys back in the field this week. No Scottie in the field once again (and Cantlay just withdrew), so people are going to be scratching and clawing to get a win this week. The Oracle has some familiar faces at the top of the prediction board as we hope to get a more consistent performance from the model.

Will try to update based on withdrawals and new adds to field.

The Oracle Model’s Top 15

  1. J.T. Poston (DFS Salary: $9,100 | Outright Winner: +3000 | Top 10 Finish: +360)

  2. Maverick McNealy (DFS Salary: $9,800 | Outright Winner: +2500 | Top 10 Finish: +320)

  3. Adam Svensson (DFS Salary: $8,200 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +450)

  4. Roger Sloan (DFS Salary: $6,300 | Outright Winner: +35000 | Top 10 Finish: +2800)

  5. Keith Mitchell (DFS Salary: $9,200 | Outright Winner: + 2500| Top 10 Finish: +320)

  6. Mac Meissner (DFS Salary: $7,000 | Outright Winner: +9000 | Top 10 Finish: +1000)

  7. Rafael Campos (DFS Salary: $6,200 | Outright Winner: +30000 | Top 10 Finish: +2500)

  8. K.H. Lee (DFS Salary: $7,200 | Outright Winner: +8000 | Top 10 Finish: +900)

  9. Troy Merritt (DFS Salary: $6,800 | Outright Winner: +12000 | Top 10 Finish: +900)

  10. Patrick Rodgers (DFS Salary: $7,800 | Outright Winner: +6000 | Top 10 Finish: +550)

  11. Denny McCarthy (DFS Salary: $9,500 | Outright Winner: +2500 | Top 10 Finish: +250)

  12. Sungjae Im (DFS Salary: $10,300 | Outright Winner: +1600 | Top 10 Finish: +200)

  13. Chan Kim (DFS Salary: $7,000 | Outright Winner: +9000 | Top 10 Finish: +1000)

  14. Davis Thompson (DFS Salary: $9,600 | Outright Winner: +2800 | Top 10 Finish: +280)

  15. David Skinns (DFS Salary: $6,900 | Outright Winner: +11000 | Top 10 Finish: +1000)

Current Form Top 5

  1. Aaron Rai (DFS Salary: $10,000 | Outright Winner: +2200 | Top 10 Finish: +225)

  2. Davis Thompson (DFS Salary: $9,600 | Outright Winner: +2800 | Top 10 Finish: +280)

  3. Maverick McNealy (DFS Salary: $9,800 | Outright Winner: + 2500| Top 10 Finish: +320)

  4. Sungjae Im (DFS Salary: $10,300 | Outright Winner: +1600 | Top 10 Finish: +200)

  5. Sam Stevens (DFS Salary: $9,000 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +400)

Front-Runners

With Patrick Cantlay withdrawing, there really is no clear cut front-runner to win this tournament. This week I want to more closely examine current form and weed out which top finishers in the model have a good chance of success this week. I wrote about Keith Mitchell and Maverick McNealy in the key stats page so I will discuss other guys in this section. To quickly summarize my thoughts on those guys; high on McNealy again, low on Mitchell so it is clear cut how to operate if you trust me or if you trust me to be wrong.

J.T. Poston (Oracle Rank: 1 | Current Form: 44 | Salary: $9,100)

Poston is a guy that I like to use as a value pick. As anyone who reads this knows, I tend to lean towards taking the more well-balanced players. However, it is tough to see what warrants the top spot in the model this week. Yes, Poston is well-balanced, in that all aspects of his game this season are pretty average. On a positive note, he had a decent US Open T32 finish, a T22 at the Memorial, and T12 at the Charles Schwab, but a T55 at the Travelers most recently. I do like Poston because of his prior success at this tournament (6th last year and winner the year before) and am considering taking him in the main lineup, I just don’t like the price. You can find guys in better form for cheaper.

Adam Svensson (Oracle Rank: 3 | Current Form: 24 | Salary: $8,200)

Svensson is a more intriguing pick for me. A little bit cheaper than the other front-runners and in a solid current form. His last three John Deere Classic’s all ended in a top-25 finish. In his last five tournaments, he has one top-25 finish and one missed cut. Not world beating, but he has been decent tee to green with a putter deficiency. The price is his main appeal, making him a possible middle-management salaried player in the lineup.

Denny McCarthy (Oracle Rank: 11 | Current Form: 72 | Salary: $9,500)

McCarthy as always is the putting king. The ability to sink putts keeps him in the conversation every single week. But the rest of his game is average to below average amongst the field. Every week he is surrounding the top-30 and we are all just waiting for something to click and for him to catch the rest of his game up to the putter. At this price, I don’t think it is worth hoping for someone to catch fire, especially with his current form. To play devil’s advocate, he does have two top-10 finishes in his last two John Deere Classic appearances.

Sungjae Im (Oracle Rank: 12 | Current Form: 4 | Salary: $10,300)

With Cantlay opting out this week, Sungjae Im has become the odds on favorite to win this week. I really love Im’s well-balanced, calm game. His tee to green current form is excellent, and his putting and short game is good enough. In his last five tournaments, he has three top-10 finishes. Obviously, he is a bit costly, but I think Cantlay withdrawing after the salary release actually makes Im a pretty valuable choice this week.

Value Picks

In terms of value picks, I tried to point out the players on the Oracle board most likely to have success and discuss their strengths and weaknesses coming into this week. Outside of the Oracle model, I like Adam Schenk ($7,700), because of his tournament history (three top-10 finishes in his last three appearances) and Doug Ghim ($7,600) because of his key stats rankings.

Mac Meissner (Oracle Rank: 6 | Current Form: 12 | Salary: $7,000)

Mac has been is pretty good form in his last five tournaments with two top-15 finishes, but he did miss his last two cuts. Good tee to green ability, struggles with the putter. Like him to have a good support week, but not my top value pick.

Troy Merritt (Oracle Rank: 9 | Current Form: 10 | Salary: $6,800)

Another solid value pick, with two top-20 finishes in his last five including a T17 finish last week. His strengths come from his approach game and his putter. That is a good combination for success at any tournament. The weakness is his off the tee ability. At his price, and at his current form, I think I have to label Merritt the top value pick of the week.

Patrick Rodgers (Oracle Rank: 10 | Current Form: 85 | Salary: $7,800)

Rodgers is kind of an inbetweener in a lot of ways this week. For one, his salary is not quite front-runner range, but at the high end of the value picks. Plus, he certainly feels like a good pick but the signs do not really point towards that feeling. He only has one top-25 finish in his last five, and overall his current form is not up to snuff. He is struggling with his approach game lately, and other aspects of his game are not good enough to pick up the slack. I am avoiding him for other value picks this week.

Chan Kim (Oracle Rank: 13 | Current Form: 26 | Salary: $7,000)

Surprisingly, Kim has a higher current form than some of the other value picks despite missing the cut in four of his last five tournaments. This might be because of the great form of his approach game (which might be a bit deceiving with less rounds because of all the missed cuts, so grain of salt). I think the missed cuts is enough to stay away from Kim. The approach game is excellent, but it is cancelled out and then some by poor putting.

Kevin Clifford
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