Key Stats: Rocket Mortgage Classic (2024)
Key Stats based on the data modeling from Rocket Mortgage Classic’s results going back to 2019 (first year of tournament).
Key Stats based on the data modeling from Traveler’s Championship results going back to 2019.
Scoring Average
Scoring Average is still serving as the baseline statistic for best performers.
Top 10 in the Field
Alex Noren
Keith Mitchell
Maverick McNealy
Davis Thompson
Aaron Rai
Taylor Pendrith
Akshay Bhatia
Robert MacIntyre
Doug Ghim
Mark Hubbard
Strokes Gained: Putting
Flat sticks maintains it’s position this week as one of the key stats. Here are the best putters in the field:
Top 10 in the Field
Taylor Montgomery
Aaron Baddeley
Taylor Pendrith
Beau Hossler
Justin Suh
Tyson Alexander
Peter Malnati
Ben Silverman
Matt Kuchar
Pierceson Coody
Greens in Regulation
Greens in Regulation percentage makes it’s way back to the key stats page. Here are the guys that will have looks from the putting surface this week.
Top 10 in the Field
Kevin Yu
Patton Kizzire
Lanto Griffin
Aaron Rai
Jhonattan Vegas
Keith Mitchell
Rafael Campos
Daniel Berger
Vincent Norrman
Andrew Novak
Driving Distance
The model likes the deep ball hitters two weeks in a row. Here’s the top bombers in the field:
Top 10 in the Field
Min Woo Lee
Kevin Dougherty
Chris Gotterup
Gary Woodland
Alejandro Tosti
Jhonattan Vegas
Vincent Norrman
Kevin Yu
Pierceson Coody
Carl Yuan
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Finally, SG: Around the Green maintains a spot on the key stats page. Here are the best feel players in the field:
Top 10 in the Field
Webb Simpson
Aaron Baddeley
Jorge Campillo
Maverick McNealy
C.T. Pan
Alex Noren
Martin Laird
Robby Shelton
Davis Thompson
Beau Hossler
Frequent Flyers
Frequent Flyer Winners: A Whole Bunch of Guys
This week, probably because of the lack of the top players in this field, a bunch of guys hold two key stat top-10 appearances. Here is a quick (sorry if they are too quick, way too many guys to write about this week) breakdown of each of the frequent flyers and their chances this week:
Aaron Baddeley
Aaron Baddeley is an interesting appearance for this week. The PGA Tour field page just added a “Course Fit” section where he ranked first for possible fit this week. To be honest, I am not buying it. Baddeley clearly has the short game but tee to green is a bit of a struggle for him. Plus, in his last five he has two missed cuts and no top-25 finishes.
Scoring Average: 53rd | SG: Putting: 2nd | Greens in Regulation: 110th | Distance: 116th | SG: Around the Green: 2nd
Current Form Rating: 107th
Aaron Rai
Rai can sometimes be missed in stronger fields, but sneakily has been playing good golf lately. He has three top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments so he should be playing with the intention to win this week in a weaker field. He has a well-balanced game but needs the putter to be better this week.
Scoring Average: 5th | SG: Putting: 76th | Greens in Regulation: 4th | Distance: 98th | SG: Around the Green: 26th
Current Form Rating: 4th
Alex Noren
Well, well, well… We meet again Alex Noren. This week he is one of the higher priced players so his analytics darling stature is not as much help. But, he is playing solid golf and has one of the more well-balanced games in the field. He is solid with his approach and short game and a decent putter. In his last five tournaments, he has three top-25 finishes. Let’s see if this is the week where Noren can stand out in the crowd.
Scoring Average: 1st | SG: Putting: 32nd | Greens in Regulation: 14th | Distance: 95th | SG: Around the Green: 6th
Current Form Rating: 13th
Beau Hossler
Hossler is another guy on this page because of his short game, ranking 4th in putting and 10th in SG: Around the Green. Ranking in the top-20 in Scoring Average is also another positive sign for him, but his driving and approach game is not ideal. In his last five, Hossler has two top-25 finishes, but also three missed cuts. He is a real mixed bag going into this week, but a with a weaker field he might be worth a look.
Scoring Average: 18th | SG: Putting: 4th | Greens in Regulation: 69th | Distance: 68th | SG: Around the Green: 10th
Current Form Rating: 55th
Davis Thompson
Honestly, I have not been following Thompson’s career closely so it was a bit of a surprise to see his name popping up a lot with my analyses. But, recently he has been really solid. In his last five he has three top-25 finishes (plus a T27 at the Memorial) which includes a T9 finish at the US Open. So, he is either building towards something or in for a big let-down.
Scoring Average: 4th | SG: Putting: 52nd | Greens in Regulation: 69th | Distance: 32nd | SG: Around the Green: 9th
Current Form Rating: 2nd
Jhonattan Vegas
Vegas has yet to really flash this season, but his tee to green game should give him some chances to score this week. Obviously, the short game and putter has to improve for him to have a chance, but I think a lot of aspects of everyone’s game are not complete. He has one top-25 finishes in his last five and three missed cuts. Tough call, would lean towards staying away.
Scoring Average: 33rd | SG: Putting: 112th | Greens in Regulation: 5th | Distance: 6th | SG: Around the Green: 95th
Current Form Rating: 78th
Keith Mitchell
Mitchell has made appearances in some of my lineups as more of a value pick. This week he is a little bit more expensive but still could be worth a look. He is one of the closest in the key stats from separating into the frequent flyer winner and I feel he is a better short game player than his stats would show. In his last five, Mitchell has two top-25 finishes. Overall, Mitchell is a solid choice this week, but he would have to step up and be a real contender.
Scoring Average: 2nd | SG: Putting: 92nd | Greens in Regulation: 6th | Distance: 11th | SG: Around the Green: 76th
Current Form Rating: 9th
Kevin Yu
Kevin Yu makes appearances in the key stats when it comes to his approach game. He will likely have a lot of good looks this week. But his short game leaves a lot to be desired. In his last five, he has one top-25 finishes. Yu kind of feels like a toss of the coin.
Scoring Average: 25th | SG: Putting: 111th | Greens in Regulation: 1st | Distance: 8th | SG: Around the Green: 110th
Current Form Rating: 21st
Maverick McNealy
Here we go, I am slowly becoming the leader of the Maverick McNealy fan club. He is highly priced this week, but I have an overall good feeling about him. His short game is very good, and the rest of game should be good enough to keep him around the top-25 of the leaderboard. Plus, his current form is good with three top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments.
Scoring Average: 3rd | SG: Putting: 18th | Greens in Regulation: 63rd | Distance: 34th | SG: Around the Green: 4th
Current Form Rating: 3rd
Pierceson Coody
The Coody twins popped up on the radar during the Zurich Classic as a pairing and have since been playing okay golf. Pierceson has a pretty well-balanced game that seems to be growing. I don’t know if he is ready to make a leap this week though. In his last five, Coody has one top-25 finish which was an impressive T5 at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Scoring Average: 79th | SG: Putting: 10th | Greens in Regulation: 38th | Distance: 9th | SG: Around the Green: 43rd
Current Form Rating: 22nd
Taylor Pendrith
Pendrith might become a popular pick this week given some high-profile finishes recently. In his last five, he has three top-25 finishes including an impressive T16 showing at the US Open. Surprisingly, his current form ranking is not that impressive. But, with his putting ability he might be able to keep his recent results going.
Scoring Average: 6th | SG: Putting: 3rd | Greens in Regulation: 74th | Distance: 12th | SG: Around the Green: 43rd
Current Form Rating: 29th
Vincent Norrman
Norrman makes his first appearance in key stats page because of his tee to green ability. I don’t think he has a well-balanced enough game to be considered a contender this week though. In his last five, he has two missed cuts and no top-25 finishes.
Scoring Average: 115th | SG: Putting: 119th | Greens in Regulation: 9th | Distance: 7th | SG: Around the Green: 103rd
Current Form Rating: 136th
Key Stats: Travelers Championship (2024)
Key Stats based on the data modeling from Traveler’s Championship results going back to 2007
Key Stats based on the data modeling from Traveler’s Championship results going back to 2007.
Will try to update based on withdrawals and new adds to field.
Update: Changes made after Rory’s withdrawal
Scoring Average
Scoring Average is still serving as the baseline despite only being fourth most important variable this week. Here’s the field’s top scorers:
Top 10 in the Field
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Billy Horschel
Ludvig Åberg
Collin Morikawa
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Taylor Pendrith
Sahith Theegala
Hideki Matsuyama
Corey Conners
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
It seems like the model is leaning towards the great drivers and approach game players this week. Here are the guys in the field that have the most complete game:
Top 10 in the Field
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Hideki Matsuyama
Tony Finau
Si Woo Kim
Corey Conners
Justin Thomas
Collin Morikawa
Ludvig Åberg
Kurt Kitayama
Bounce Back Percentage
This is a new addition to the Key Stats page. The percentage of following a hole with bogey or worse with a birdie or better. It is often a barometer for the Tour’s most mentally tough competitors, and is brought up a lot when talking about Scottie Scheffler’s game.
Top 10 in the Field
Scottie Scheffler
Chris Gotterup
Andrew Putnam
Akshay Bhatia
Collin Morikawa
Robert MacIntyre
Nick Dunlap
Cameron Young
Byeong Hun An
Patrick Cantlay
Driving Distance
The model is loving the long-bombers this week as Driving Distance makes it’s first appearance in the Key Stats page as well. Here’s the longest hitting players in the field:
Top 10 in the Field
Byeong Hun An
Wyndham Clark
Chris Gotterup
Taylor Pendrith
Stephan Jaeger
Jake Knapp
Tony Finau
Ludvig Åberg
Justin Thomas
Jordan Spieth
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Finally, the model rounds out it’s distance loving week with a little respect for the short game. We saw how critical it was at the US Open this past week. I doubt it will be as difficult this week, but always good to have success when around the putting surface.
Top 10 in the Field
Hideki Matsuyama
Justin Thomas
Scottie Scheffler
Collin Morikawa
Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Henley
Max Homa
Si Woo Kim
Xander Schauffele
Tony Finau
Frequent Flyers
Frequent Flyer Runner-Ups
This week the frequent flyer’s circle is really crowded as we have two winners and five runner-ups that had a top-10 appearance in three of the five key stats. Here is a quick breakdown of each player and their respective chances to have a strong week. I also included the rankings for every key stat and a ranking for their current forms.
Hideki Matsuyama
Matsuyama had a strong outing last week at the US Open. He seems to be healed up from the back issues earlier in the season. His accuracy off the tee, approach game and stellar scrambling ability makes him one of the most consistent performers on Tour. In his last five tournaments, he has three top-10 finishes, including the 6th place finish last week. Matsuyama is not the long bomber the model seems to be leaning towards this week, but his overall game and current form should have you intrigued.
Scoring Average: 8th | SG: Tee to Green: 3rd | Bounce Back: 12th | Distance: 49th | SG: Around the Green: 1st
Current Form Rating: 5th
Justin Thomas
Man, do I really want to trust Justin Thomas this week. But after a tough showing at the Memorial, and a complete no-show last week, it has become impossible to feel confident in this frequent flyer. All you have to look at is how far he has dipped in the Scoring Average rankings in just two weeks. His strengths come from his driving ability and his great hands around the green. The weakness seems to be putting and getting frustrated with not scoring. In his last five tournaments, he has two top-10 finishes so he definitely has flashes of success. Your guess is as good as mine, but I am leaning towards staying away this week.
Scoring Average: 22nd | SG: Tee to Green: 7th | Bounce Back: 46th | Distance: 9th | SG: Around the Green: 2nd
Current Form Rating: 9th
Ludvig Åberg
This feels like a possible popular play this week. Aberg had an impressive first 54 holes this past week, on top of the great performance at the Masters. He just has the talent, and the demeanor to be a fixture of the PGA Tour for the foreseeable future. The touch around the green is where he needs the most improvement, but with four top-15 finishes in his last five, Aberg should be on the watchlist for contenders this week.
Scoring Average: 4th | SG: Tee to Green: 9th | Bounce Back: 49th | Distance: 8th | SG: Around the Green: 51st
Current Form Rating: 15th
Tony Finau
Looking at all of the key stats, outside of Scottie, Finau was the guy that stood out. Just outside the top-10 on the stats he missed out on, Finau displays a well-balanced game. His impressive T3 finish last week and three other top-20 finishes in his last five, should be giving him a ton of confidence going into this week. He is so close to a breakthrough and all signs seem to be pointing to sooner rather than later.
Scoring Average: 11th | SG: Tee to Green: 4th | Bounce Back: 11th | Distance: 7th | SG: Around the Green: 10th
Current Form Rating: 6th
Xander Schauffele
Xander is another well-balanced player with a strong form going into this week. His recent resume speaks for itself with four top-10 finishes in his last five with the other being a top-25 finish. Other guys are rounding into great form around him, but I expect him to be more than capable of maintaining his current form.
Scoring Average: 2nd | SG: Tee to Green: 2nd | Bounce Back: 27th | Distance: 11th | SG: Around the Green: 9th
Current Form Rating: 2nd
Frequent Flyer Winners: Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa
This feels just about right; we have Scottie who has dominated the stats page all season long and Morikawa who seems to be in great form lately. Here’s a breakdown on the pros and cons of taking these two players this week:
Scottie Scheffler
This is probably Scottie’s natural place in the Key Stats page. Pretty much pick a stat out of the hat and there is chance he is near the top of the leaderboard. Last week was his first hiccup, being the only finish in his last five tournaments outside of the top-10. Everyone, including myself, will be over-analyzing whether his ball-striking will wane, or his putter will prevent him from getting back to the top. But, I think Scottie has earned all our trust in the fact that he will bounce back this week.
Scoring Average: 1st | SG: Tee to Green: 1st | Bounce Back: 1st | Distance: 20th | SG: Around the Green: 3rd
Current Form Rating: 3rd
Collin Morikawa
Every week feels like the week Morikawa should break through and get himself a win. Last week he just did not have the game in his first two rounds. But, he showed his form in the weekend and climbed up all the way to T14. He has 5 top-20 finishes in his last five, including 2nd place at the Memorial. In a field of heavy hitters, Morikawa fits right in and should be a contender once again.
Scoring Average: 5th | SG: Tee to Green: 8th | Bounce Back: 5th | Distance: 54th | SG: Around the Green: 4th
Current Form Rating: 1st
Key Stats: The US Open (2024)
Key Stats based on the data modeling from US Open results going back to 2007
Key Stats based on the data modeling from The US Open results going back to 2007.
One thing important to mention is I do not have a lot of the current stats for players in the LIV Tour as well as more unknown US Open qualifiers which makes the gaps in the models a little bit bigger this week.
Scoring Average
Scoring Average is back on top for most important stat for the model. Here’s the baseline for top performers:
Top 10 in the Field
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Billy Horschel
Alex Noren
Collin Morikawa
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Ludvig Åberg
Aaron Rai
Davis Thompson
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Driving distance and accuracy has come to the forefront for this week’s model. Here is the field’s best drivers:
Top 10 in the Field
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Rico Hoey
Viktor Hovland
Jordan Spieth
Min Woo Lee
Collin Morikawa
Wyndham Clark
Ludvig Åberg
Strokes Gained: Putting
From the driver, to the flat stick. The first shot and the last shot of each hole is topping the charts for performance statistics.
Top 10 in the Field
Denny McCarthy
Billy Horschel
Taylor Pendrith
Peter Malnati
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Jason Day
Beau Hossler
Mackenzie Hughes
Thomas Detry
Harris English
Strokes Gained: Approach
The model is covering all of it’s tracks with the approach game falling right behind driving and putting in terms of importance. Here are the best approach guys on Tour in the field:
Top 10 in the Field
Scottie Scheffler
Corey Conners
Tom Hoge
Tony Finau
Justin Thomas
Xander Schauffele
Aaron Rai
Si Woo Kim
Lucas Glover
Greyson Sigg
Scrambling
Finally, scrambling percentage makes a return to the Key Stats page. Intuitively, it does feel like a lot of the top Scramblers have performed well in US Open’s in the past. Here are the guys most likely to save their rounds this week:
Top 10 in the Field
Xander Schauffele
Alex Noren
Scottie Scheffler
Denny McCarthy
Hideki Matsuyama
Ludvig Åberg
Greyson Sigg
Tommy Fleetwood
Mackenzie Hughes
Billy Horschel
Frequent Flyers
Frequent Flyer Runner-Ups
Two players (Ludvig Aberg and Billy Horschel) ranked in the Top-10 for three of the five key stat categories. Here’s a quick breakdown on each of their chances for a solid major performance.
Ludvig Aberg
Aberg will be making his US Open debut this week and should be playing with some confidence. I feel like he is fully recovered from his wrist injury and ready to go. He ranks 8th in Scoring Average, 10th in SG: Off the Tee, and 6th in Scrambling. For our other key stats, Aberg ranks 34th in SG: Putting and 13th in SG: Approach. In his last five tournaments, he has four top-15 finishes including a tied-5th finish last week at the Memorial. So, Aberg has the game and the form to be a real competitor this week.
Billy Horschel
Horschel should be a really appealing value pick this week, getting pushed down the salary charts because of the top LIV golfers crowding the field. For this field, he ranks 4th in Scoring Average, 2nd in SG: Putting, and 10th in Scrambling. For our other key stats, Horschel is 27th in SG: Off the Tee, and 55th in SG: Approach. In his last five tournaments, he has three top-25 finishes. Not quite the resume of Aberg, lacking the powerhouse type driving and approach game. But, with his putting stroke and scrambling ability, he could hang around the top of the leaderboard this week.
Current Form Wild Cards
Bryson Dechambeau
Bryson’s performance in the last two major’s has to be brought up. With driving ability coming to the forefront of key stats it would be wrong to leave him out of this discussion. If he has the driver game going like at the Masters and PGA Championship, Dechambeau will hop right back to the top of the leaderboards.
Sepp Straka
The reason I want to mention Straka is his exceptional approach game in the last five tournaments. That style of play seems to be the key ingredient for the top players in the world. Now Straka is nowhere near that level of player, but I think his approach game could keep him in the mix this week.
Frequent Flyer Winners: Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
No surprises at all when it comes to the key stats frequent flyers this week. Scottie remains the best player in the world and the stats portray his dominance. He is 1st in Scoring Average, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, and 3rd in Scrambling amongst the field. For SG: Putting, Scottie ranks 41st. The putter has been good enough for him to be in the top-10 of all of his past five tournaments, including three wins. Scheffler has been on a mission all season long, and I do not see why it would stop this week. He has to be the top pick for the lineup once again.
Xander Schauffele
Coming in right next to Scheffler, both alphabetically and statistically, is Xander Schauffele. With a week of tough tournament play in his pocket after the major breakthrough, I would guess Xander will be sharp this week. He ranks 2nd in Scoring Average, 3rd in SG: Off the Tee, 6th in SG: Approach, and 1st in Scrambling. For SG: Putting, Xander is just outside the top-10 list ranking 11th. He might have the most well-rounded game on Tour leading him to five top-25 finishes in his last five including the major win. I am honestly considering pairing these two frequent flyers together and trying to find four value players to surround them with because they are just that good.
Key Stats: The Memorial Tournament 2024
Key Stats based on the data modeling from Memorial Tournament results going back to 2007
I cannot claim that my model has been world-record breaking, but since using it I have started to make better picks and better determine who the true contenders are.
Key Stats based on the data modeling from The Memorial Tournament results going back to 2007.
I cannot claim that my model has been world-record breaking, but since using it I have started to make better picks and better determine who the true contenders are.
Scoring Average
Scoring Average actually was not the most important stat this week. This is probably a result of the tournament being a Signature Event, creating a strong field in which everyone’s Scoring Average is pretty close. I still want to utilize it as a baseline statistic for the most consistent players this season.
Top 10 in the Field
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Billy Horschel
Alex Noren
Davis Thompson
Ludvig Åberg
Ben Griffin
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Justin Thomas
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
This week’s model was dominated by the Strokes Gained statistics. It makes sense because every little edge over the competition counts this week. The top performance statistic in terms of importance to the model was Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. When you look at the list below you can probably see why; Big time players that have won big time tournaments.
Top 10 in the Field
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Hideki Matsuyama
Rory McIlroy
Justin Thomas
Si Woo Kim
Tony Finau
Corey Conners
Alex Noren
Collin Morikawa
Strokes Gained: Approach
The next most important stat this week was Strokes Gained: Approach. This stat in my mind is all about who creates the most opportunities to score low. Here’s the top approach players in the field:
Top 10 in the Field
Scottie Scheffler
Corey Conners
Tom Hoge
Xander Schauffele
Tony Finau
Justin Thomas
Si Woo Kim
Shane Lowry
Lucas Glover
Akshay Bhatia
Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Putting again making an appearance in the top statistics this week, which had not been the case before starting this blog. This stat is really all about those that create opportunities with the flat stick. Unfortunately, when it comes to the Frequent Flyer section, this stat is not the biggest factor, but hopefully you can discern who in this list might putt their way into the mix.
Top 10 in the Field
Denny McCarthy
Peter Malnati
Billy Horschel
Taylor Pendrith
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Mackenzie Hughes
Harris English
Sahith Theegala
Thomas Detry
Ben Griffin
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
The last key stat this week is Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Touch around the greens definitely played a role last week. These guys should be saving par and maybe holing scoring chances with their wedges:
Top 10 in the Field
Hideki Matsuyama
Scottie Scheffler
Justin Thomas
Mackenzie Hughes
Alex Noren
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Collin Morikawa
Russell Henley
Lucas Glover
Frequent Flyers
Frequent Flyer Runner-Ups
Two players (Alex Noren, Xander Schauffele) came in behind the winners with a Top-10 ranking in three of the five key stat categories. Here’s a quick breakdown for each of their chances and current forms:
Alex Noren
Well, here we go again. Alex Noren really let me down last week. But, he is still one of the most consistent players this season with four of his last five tournaments ending in a Top-25 finish including a 3rd place finish at the Byron Nelson. Noren ranks 5th in Scoring Average, 9th in SG: Tee to Green and 5th in SG: Around the Green. For our other key stats, Noren is ranked 17th in SG: Approach and 31st in SG: Putting. I am torn on this, most likely due to recency bias with my DFS lineup being destroyed by picking Noren instead of Rory last week. But, everything points to Noren falling back to his consistent mean and bouncing back this week as a true contender.
Xander Schauffele
Again, ground-breaking stuff from me this week: Xander Schauffele might be good at golf. His last five tournaments are all Top-25 finishes including of course the major win at the PGA Championship. Amongst the field, he ranks 2nd in Scoring Average, 2nd in SG: Tee to Green, and 4th in SG: Approach. For our other key stats, Xander comes in at 15th in SG: Putting and 13th in SG: Around the Green. It’s clear that Xander is a true contender in pretty much any field. The only concern you can find for him would be a potential major hangover.
Current Form Wild Cards
This is a new section for this week. I wanted to include the players that are not necessarily season-long stats leaders but in their last five tournaments have shown the stuff to be in contention. The PGA Tour leaderboard has a Current Form section which is extremely helpful for my purposes. In that section they keep track of three of the five key stats this week (SG:Approach, Around the Green, and Putting) as well as the player’s last five finishing places. One player I could have placed here but felt was a bit of a front-runner, which this page has a lot of, is Rory McIllroy. Here are two other players to keep an eye on based on their current form:
Collin Morikawa
Morikawa feels like he has been building towards something special recently. He ranks in the top-10 for his current form in SG: Around the Green and SG: Off the Tee. What really intrigues me with Morikawa is his last five finishes where his average finish is 11.2. He has three Top-10 finishes in his last five including two Top-5 finishes in his last two appearances. Morikawa is quickly becoming the front-runner he was a few years ago.
Russell Henley
Henley is another guy that feels like he is putting things together. He has four Top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments with an average placing of 17.4. He ranks in the top-10 in his Current Form for key stats SG: Approach and SG: Around the Green. Overall, Henley has felt like someone trying breakthrough as a star on the Tour. I do not know if he is quite at the consistency level to actually achieve that but his recent play is definitely intriguing for a potential DFS play this week.
Frequent Flyer Winners: Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas
Scottie Scheffler
Not really a big surprise. I feel like Scheffler is going to accrue a lot of Frequent Flyer miles for as long as I write this blog. In his last five tournaments he has five Top-10 finishes including two wins and four Top-5 finishes. The man is a machine, ranking 1st in Scoring Average, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, and 2nd in SG: Around the Green. For our other key stat, Scheffler ranks 39th in SG: Putting. The man’s only “weakness” is not sinking the long putts but he tends to be pretty close to the hole anyways. No need to say it, he’s a contender.
Justin Thomas
Thomas does not quite boast the resume that Scottie has, but kind of under the radar he has put together a solid season. His next leap is now stepping up and winning a big one. Amongst the field, JT ranks 10th in Scoring Average, 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 6th in SG: Approach, and 3rd in SG: Around the Green. For our other key stat, he ranks 70th in SG: Putting. It is the putter holding him back from being the dominant player he once was. If he finds the stroke, he will be dangerous.
Key Stats: RBC Canadian Open 2024
Key Stats based on the data modeling from Canadian Open results going back to 2007
I cannot claim that my model has been world-record breaking, but since using it I have started to make better picks and better determine who the true contenders are.
Key Stats based on the data modeling from Canadian Open results going back to 2007.
I cannot claim that my model has been world-record breaking, but since using it I have started to make better picks and better determine who the true contenders are.
Scoring Average
A bit of an obvious one that will serve as the baseline for who has been playing well all season long:
Top 10 in the Field
Alex Noren (69.87)
Rory McIllroy (70.071)
Davis Thompson (70.232)
Keith Mitchell (70.272)
Maverick McNealy (70.304)
Sahith Theegala (70.329)
Doug Ghim (70.418)
Aaron Rai (70.497)
Akshay Bhatia (70.499)
Jorge Campillo (70.535)
Strokes Gained: Putting
The putting stats tend to fall to background when it comes to most of my modeling but this week it is back to the forefront as the most important stat not including Scoring Average. There is not as many typical contenders in this mix but perhaps you can find some sleeper picks and weed out the top of the leaderboards:
Top 10 in the Field
Aaron Baddeley
Sahith Theegala
Justin Suh
Matt Kuchar
Taylor Pendrith
Beau Hossler
Erik Van Rooyen
Mackenzie Hughes
Ben Griffin
Zach Johnson
Scrambling
Recovering from tough situations can save a tournament. Scrambling came in at number two in importance amongst the performance stats. These are the top guys this week:
Top 10 in the Field
Alex Noren
Aaron Baddeley
Greyson Sigg
Tommy Fleetwood
Mackenzie Hughes
Maverick McNealy
Ben Silverman
Ben Griffin
Jorge Campillo
Nate Lashley
Greens in Regulation
It always helps to have a look at birdie. These players will likely have looks all week long:
Top 10 in the Field
Corey Conners
Patton Kizzire
Alex Noren
Aaron Rai
Kevin Yu
Lanto Griffin
Jhonattan Vegas
Daniel Berger
Victor Perez
Keith Mitchell
Frequent Flyers
Frequent Flyer Runner-Ups
Eight players (Aaron Baddeley, Aaron Rai, Ben Griffin, Jorge Campillo, Keith Mitchell, Mackenzie Hughes, Maverick McNealy, Sahith Theegala) showed up on two of the top 10 lists for our key stats. Here is a quick breakdown of each where we will try to determine the true contenders:
Aaron Baddeley
This one seems like a bit of a long-shot as Aaron Baddeley has not necessarily been tearing it up with only one Top-25 finish in his last five starts. But, he is at the top the Strokes Gained Putting list, and number two in Scrambling. For our other key stats, Baddeley ranks 46th in Scoring Average and 111th in Greens in Regulation percentage. So, it seems like Aaron might be able to knock down his chances but might not get the number of looks you’d really want to consider him a contender.
Aaron Rai
This one has a little bit more juice to it as Aaron Rai has two Top-25 finishes including a top-5 finish at the Byron Nelson a month ago. Rai ranks 8th in Scoring Average and 4th in Greens in Regulation amongst the field. For our other key stats, he ranks just outside the top-10 (12th) in Scrambling and 82nd in Strokes Gained: Putting. So, you can definitely mark him down as a true contender, but he will have to raise the level of his putting to get the job done.
Ben Griffin
Ben Griffin is a bit of a wild card amongst these frequent flyers. In his last five tournaments he has three top-25 performances (T-16, T-14, T-13), but watch out because he also has two Missed Cuts. Griffin ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 8th in Scrambling, so his strengths are around the green and on the green. For our other key stats Griffin ranks just outside the top-10 (12th) in Scoring Average and 62nd in Greens in Regulation percentage. I would classify him as a true contender, but he will have to improve his approach game to put him over the top.
Jorge Campillo
Campillo, in all honesty, is not someone I have followed closely. I was surprised to see his name in the top-10 Scoring Average list. All that being said, Campillo has been in pretty decent form, with three top-25 finishes in his last five starts including a T4 finish at the Myrtle Beach Championship (bit of a weakened field but someone has to place). As mentioned, Campillo rounds out the top-10 in Scoring Average and ranks 9th in Scrambling. For our other key stats, Campillo ranks 60th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 71st in Greens in Regulation percentage. All this plus his missed cut last week leads me to believe Campillo cannot be labeled a true contender.
Keith Mitchell
Keith Mitchell has become a top pick for my model each week. It has not really paid off yet as Mitchell has been pretty much middle of the pack with two top-25 finishes in his last five appearances. But Mitchell does rank 4th in the field in Scoring Average and 10th in Greens in Regulation. For our other key stats, Mitchell ranks 100th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 42nd in Scrambling. My heart wants to back his constant appearance near the top of my model, but I’d stay away from calling him a true contender.
Mackenzie Hughes
The lone Canadian amongst the Frequent Flyers is Mackenzie Hughes. Hughes has been a little bit up and down recently with a Missed Cut at the PGA Championship but two top-15 finishes in his last five showings including a T6 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship with a very strong field. Ranking 8th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 5th in Scrambling, it would seem likely that the national hero might make a strong showing this week. For our other key stats, Hughes ranks 48th in Scoring Average and 106th in Greens in Regulation percentage. This one feels like a toss-up. Just following the stats it would be tough to call him a true contender, but his strong finish at the Wells Fargo at least gives you a reason to hope the Canadian can pull off some hometown magic.
Maverick McNealy
This might be the best week to be a Maverick McNealy fan (if those really exist outside of the McNealy family). McNealy hasn’t been outrageously strong with only two top-25 finishes in his last five appearances, although both came in his last two tournaments so perhaps he is rounding into form. McNealy ranks 5th in Scoring Average in the field and 6th in Scrambling. For our other key stats, he ranks 25th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 66th in Greens in Regulation. Not world-beating especially with his approach game, but what has me high on McNealy is that he led the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting last year. If he can find that putting stroke again perhaps he can be considered a true contender, at the very least a strong finisher.
Sahith Theegala
You probably don’t need me telling you that Sahith Theegala is a true contender in this field. Right now he has the star power, and he has two top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments including an eye opening 2nd place finish at the RBC Heritage and a strong showing of T12 at the PGA Championship. In this field, Theegala ranks 6th in Scoring Average and 2nd in Strokes Gained: Putting. For our other key stats, he ranks 39th in Scrambling and 16th in Greens in Regulation percentage. He might need to sharpen up his touch around the green, but Theegala feels poised for a win, and the stats seem to be pointing to the fact he is a true contender to do it this week.
Frequent Flyer Winner: Alex Noren
The player that wins the frequent flyer award this week is Alex Noren. Not a total surprise for the analytics darling. Additionally, Noren has finished in the top-25 in all of his past five tournaments including a top-15 finish at the PGA Championship and a 3rd place finish in the Byron Nelson. The only key stat he is not in the top 10 is Strokes Gained: Putting where he ranks 43rd in the field. So, it seems as though he is the player most likely to get great looks to score this week. Whether or not he capitalizes on those looks is the question.