Betting and DFS Top 15: Rocket Mortgage Classic (2024)
Shows the model’s top performers and analyzes top picks for Outright Winner and Top-10 Finishes.
Overview
After the last couple of weeks evaluating the top players in the world it is back to the nitty-gritty work of evaluating the guys in the background. People that were value picks last week are this week’s front runners. Players that have struggled all year might become top value picks. It is difficult to discern who will step up in a weak field, but myself and the Oracle will try our best.
Will try to update based on withdrawals and new adds to field.
The Oracle Model’s Top 15
Akshay Bhatia (DFS Salary: $9,800 | Outright Winner: +2200 | Top 10 Finish: +240)
Davis Thompson (DFS Salary: $8,300 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Maverick McNealy (DFS Salary: $8,900 | Outright Winner: +2800 | Top 10 Finish: +300)
Will Zalatoris (DFS Salary: $9,200 | Outright Winner: +3000 | Top 10 Finish: +350)
Keith Mitchell (DFS Salary: $8,500 | Outright Winner: +3000 | Top 10 Finish: +330)
Aaron Rai (DFS Salary: $8,800 | Outright Winner: +3000 | Top 10 Finish: +300)
Alex Noren (DFS Salary: $10,200 | Outright Winner: +2800 | Top 10 Finish: +300)
Aaron Baddeley (DFS Salary: $5,300 | Outright Winner: +35000 | Top 10 Finish: +2200)
Peter Malnati (DFS Salary: $6,100 | Outright Winner: +20000 | Top 10 Finish: +1600)
Doug Ghim (DFS Salary: $6,900 | Outright Winner: +9000 | Top 10 Finish: +750)
Min Woo Lee (DFS Salary: $10,500 | Outright Winner: +2000 | Top 10 Finish: +230)
Matt Kuchar (DFS Salary: $6,100 | Outright Winner: +25000 | Top 10 Finish: +1600)
Kevin Dougherty (DFS Salary: $5,500 | Outright Winner: +30000 | Top 10 Finish: +2200)
Andrew Novak (DFS Salary: $6,700 | Outright Winner: +11000 | Top 10 Finish: +900)
Mark Hubbard (DFS Salary: $7,700 | Outright Winner: +7000 | Top 10 Finish: +600)
Current Form Top 5
Tom Kim (DFS Salary: $11,000 | Outright Winner: +1200 | Top 10 Finish: +160)
Davis Thompson (DFS Salary: $8,300 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Maverick McNealy (DFS Salary: $8,900 | Outright Winner: +2800 | Top 10 Finish: +300)
Aaron Rai (DFS Salary: $8,800 | Outright Winner: +3000 | Top 10 Finish: +300)
Matt Wallace (DFS Salary: $7,400 | Outright Winner: +5000 | Top 10 Finish: +500)
Front-Runners
The front runners this week are typically a little cheaper than at the moment. No Tom Kim or Cameron Young in the Oracle Model. It feels like both are storming their way into this one with Kim being the current form champ and Young shooting a sub-60 round just days ago, but the Oracle is calling for the fade route. Here’s a look at some of the higher salaried guys the Oracle has circled:
Akshay Bhatia (Oracle Rank: 1 | Current Form: 27 | Salary: $9,800)
Bhatia has been excellent his past three tournaments with three top-25 finishes including a tied-5th place finish last week. He only appears in the Scoring Average top-10 for the key stats, and is putting is a close 16th place in the field. But his current form is good enough to get him solid looks to bury this week. I like Bhatia to continue his hot form, so get ready for the fade folks.
Maverick McNealy (Oracle Rank: 3 | Current Form: 3 | Salary: $8,900)
As mentioned in the key stats page, Maverick McNealy is becoming a favorite of mine. I don’t know if it is because his name is Maverick, or if it is the fact I stared at his name at the top of the SG: Putting page a heck of a lot while gathering the data. Unconscious bias or something. But, being sub-$9000, a solid current form, and an excellent short game, McNealy is looking at a strong chance to build his fandom.
Min Woo Lee (Oracle Rank: 11 | Current Form: 8 | Salary: $10,500)
Min Woo Lee is probably listed here because he hits absolute bombs off the tee. His short game and putting is middle of the pack for the field, and his approach game needs to be a whole lot better. To be honest, at that high of a salary, I am looking at the more middle-management salaried guys like McNealy, Zalatoris, Mitchell, and/or Rai. However, his current form might be intriguing to you with four top-25 finishes in his last five and the missed one being a 26th place finish.
Value Picks
If you are a value pick in this tournament, it likely means your season is not going according to plan. Luckily for us drafters, we probably do not need to draft as many with less higher salaried options. But, we all know these picks can make or a break a DFS week. So, hopefully we can identify the right support player. I discussed Aaron Baddeley in the key stats page so here are some other guys:
Peter Malnati (Oracle Rank: 9 | Current Form: 102 | Salary: $6,100)
Malnati feels like someone to avoid as a true value pick. Nothing in his current form suggests he is trending towards a good tournament. The one positive would be his decent short game and putting ability. But, nowhere near any top-25 finishes in his last five. If you blindly follow the Oracle and like a cheap player all the power to you but I am not going with Malnati this week in my main lineup.
Doug Ghim (Oracle Rank: 10 | Current Form: 37 | Salary: $6,900)
Ghim intuitively makes a little bit more sense, given he is a little bit closer to some strong finishes (still no top-25 finishes in the last five). His game has been pretty good all-around outside of his putting which needs to improve. He is not my top value pick but worth a shot.
Andrew Novak (Oracle Rank: 14 | Current Form: 18 | Salary: $6,700)
Novak to me is looking like the top value pick for the week. His most recent finish was T14 at the RBC Canadian Open. His off the tee form is pretty good. He hasn’t been perfect, which no one near this price is, with a weak approach and putting game recently. So, I am definitely taking a risk labeling him the top value pick but I just think the time away combined with the positive form he left in should be the lead up to a solid week.
Kevin Dougherty (Oracle Rank: 13 | Current Form: 94 | Salary: $5,500)
Dougherty, like Baddeley, is a sub-$6,000 salaried player. He really is someone only to look at if you want to stack your lineup with high salary players. Four missed cuts in his last five, and the only positive thing going for him is his off the tee ability. Long-shot for sure.
Betting and DFS Top 15: Travelers Championship (2024)
Shows the model’s top performers and analyzes top picks for Outright Winner and Top-10 Finishes.
Overview
Well, we follow up a wild major championship with another signature event. This is really the peak of golf at the moment. We have Scottie trying to re-assert himself as the top guy on Tour. Morikawa trying to maintain his form, and guys like Spieth and Thomas trying to find their form once again. The Frenchman Pavon and the Swede Aberg both trying to build off their success this season. A lot of storylines, but the biggest story for me each week is who will the Oracle mark as due for a strong finish this week.
Will try to update based on withdrawals and new adds to field.
Update: Changes made after Rory McIllroy’s withdrawal.
The Oracle Model’s Top 15
Jordan Spieth (DFS Salary: $8,200 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Billy Horschel (DFS Salary: $7,300 | Outright Winner: +7500 | Top 10 Finish: +500)
Scottie Scheffler (DFS Salary: $12,500 | Outright Winner: +400 | Top 10 Finish: -225)
Sungjae Im (DFS Salary: $7,900 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Sam Burns (DFS Salary: $9,000 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +280)
Keegan Bradley (DFS Salary: $8,700 | Outright Winner: +5000 | Top 10 Finish: +400)
Sahith Theegala (DFS Salary: $8,800 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +280)
Max Homa (DFS Salary: $7,800 | Outright Winner: +5000 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Shane Lowry (DFS Salary: $7,800 | Outright Winner: +7000 | Top 10 Finish: +500)
Corey Conners (DFS Salary: $8,400 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Akshay Bhatia (DFS Salary: $7,200 | Outright Winner: +9000 | Top 10 Finish: +600)
Tom Hoge (DFS Salary: $7,000 | Outright Winner: +8000 | Top 10 Finish: +600)
Ludvig Åberg (DFS Salary: $10,200 | Outright Winner: +1600 | Top 10 Finish: +150)
Victor Perez (DFS Salary: $6,500 | Outright Winner: +18000 | Top 10 Finish: +1100)
Byeong Hun An (DFS Salary: $7,600 | Outright Winner: +6000 | Top 10 Finish: +450)
Current Form Top 5
Collin Morikawa (DFS Salary: $9,800 | Outright Winner: +1400 | Top 10 Finish: +140)
Xander Schauffele (DFS Salary: $11,200 | Outright Winner: +750 | Top 10 Finish: -125)
Scottie Scheffler (DFS Salary: $12,500 | Outright Winner: +400 | Top 10 Finish: -225)
Corey Conners (DFS Salary: $8,400 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Hideki Matsuyama (DFS Salary: $9,200 | Outright Winner: +2500 | Top 10 Finish: +220)
Front-Runners
Definitely some surprises on and off the board this week. The top-2 for starters was a little bit shocking given neither Spieth nor Horschel tally many of the key stats. No Morikawa or Schauffele despite their presence in a lot of the key stat leaders. I think both of those guys are still great front-runner type picks. However, the Oracle works in its own way and I have to respect the integrity of the top list and discuss those players below.
Jordan Spieth (Oracle Rank: 1 | Current Form: 25 | Salary: $8,200)
Well this is a real leap of faith with the Oracle this week. Last week it was supposed to be an easy top spot with Scottie finally gracing number one, but I really do not see the logic behind this pick. Spieth does not rank the top of any of the key stat categories this week besides driving distance. The one thing he does have going for him is he has been strong off the tee lately. In his last five tournaments, he has zero top-25 finishes. I might put him in one of my lineups to make sure I don’t anger the Oracle, but for the most part I will be fading this pick.
Scottie Scheffler (Oracle Rank: 3 | Current Form: 3 | Salary: $12,500)
As the leader in the bounce back stat category, it feels fitting that Scottie would recover from his poor showing last week. He really struggled on the greens at Pinehurst. But, he certainly was not alone in that regard. The more concerning part about the first couple of rounds was some poor shots off the tee and with his approach. The weekend ball-striking seemed better, but if you’re like me you might be uncertain if he is as dominant moving forward. Last year, he started out strong and then other guys like Hovland shaped up later in the year. All that being said, Scottie is probably more likely to shut me up and win than he is to breakdown and lose his game.
Ludvig Aberg (Oracle Rank: 13 | Current Form: 15 | Salary: $10,200)
Another guy in both blog pages this week, Aberg just looks the part of a contender. Great from tee to green and plays fast paced golf, there really is nothing to hate about this kid. The scrambling around the green is his biggest weakness right now, but I would not be shocked if he didn’t need to scramble a whole lot this week.
Value Picks
The value picks are peppered with some familiar faces for the Oracle like Billy Horschel as well as some new ones that lean towards more deep ball and approach game players. Here’s a breakdown on some of the value picks featured this week.
Billy Horschel (Oracle Rank: 2 | Current Form: 35 | Salary: $7,300)
Horschel was a decent final round away from being an absolute steal last week. But the game is four rounds for a reason and he could not pull it off. This week, on a sponsorship exemption bid, Horschel is looking to prove the Oracle right. In his last five tournaments, he has three top-25 finishes. The strength of his game right now is the putter. It has kept him around the top-30 of leaderboards. But, his ball-striking will have to be better if he wants to be worthy of the 2nd spot of the Oracle list.
Max Homa (Oracle Rank: 8 | Current Form: 29 | Salary: $7,800)
Homa is not having the season he would have hoped for. It seems like the tougher the field, the more he disappears in the crowd. He has two top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments including T22 at the Memorial so there is some hope. But, missing the cut last week and his struggles off the tee makes it difficult to see his path. He does have a good approach and short game, so he might be a good support player that you hope finds form.
Akshay Bhatia (Oracle Rank: 11 | Current Form: 38 | Salary: $7,200)
Bhatia’s case for a value pick comes from his most recent performances. Two top-25 finishes in his last five, including a T16 finish last week at the US Open. He has been excellent off the tee, and good enough with his approach game to be considered a decent support player this week. The weakness has been with his short game and putting. With his last two tournaments, I think he is worth giving a shot at this price.
Tom Hoge (Oracle Rank: 12 | Current Form: 37 | Salary: $7,000)
Hoge is known for having a strong approach game. It makes him an appealing pick to get hot on a given week. Like Bhatia, Hoge has been struggling with his short game. In his last five, he has two top-25 finishes including a T23 at the PGA Championship. His missed cut last week is making me weary, but he is cheap so he will probably make an appearance in at least one of my lineups.
Victor Perez (Oracle Rank: 14 | Current Form: 43 | Salary: $6,500)
Perez has to be disappointed with another missed cut at a major this year. It seemed like he would have a strong showing given his prior two tournaments he finished T12 at the stacked Memorial and 3rd at the Canadian Open. Perez has a pretty well-balanced game. His weakest point right now is off the tee. I would not be too concerned with last week given how difficult Pinehurst played. The strong showing in the Memorial makes me believe Perez at this price is worth a serious look.
Betting and DFS Top 15: The US Open (2024)
Shows the model’s top performers and analyzes top picks for Outright Winner and Top-10 Finishes.
Overview
I am honestly really excited for this week. This all started when I actually won some money using modeling techniques for the Masters and then have been in the money more times then when I was just picking players myself. To be transparent, my DFS lineups of late have not been great. I have been overthinking it a bit too much. I wrote last week about how I believe Adam Hadwin is a good long shot value pick and then somehow decided to draft someone else over him. Writing the blog, although helpful for me in sort of evaluating each player in the model rather than just taking it at face value, has also messed me up both weeks with my own lineup process. Hopefully, you are a lot smarter in your picking process and have been able to glean some good picks from me without overthinking it.
This week is all about bridging information gaps. LIV Tour players do not have PGA Tour data, but several of them are heavy hitters. I tried my best to get some lag data, and world golf data to try to help discern which LIV guys will be in the mix. I decided to stick with the Top 15 + Top 5 Current Form format. No real reason behind it other than the information gaps did make a lot of guys towards the middle of the model to have the same probability of a strong result, which to me was not intuitive. The Top 15 are all guys that were not clumped together due to lack of data. Finally, I combined the Long Shots and Value Picks section this week.
UPDATE: Changes made because of Jon Rahm’s withdrawal.
The Oracle Model’s Top 15
Scottie Scheffler (DFS Salary: $13,000 | Outright Winner: +300 | Top 10 Finish: -250)
Viktor Hovland (DFS Salary: $9,800 | Outright Winner: +2000 | Top 10 Finish: +200)
Rory McIlroy (DFS Salary: $12,100 | Outright Winner: +1100 | Top 10 Finish: +125)
Tyrell Hatton (DFS Salary: $7,800 | Outright Winner: +5500 | Top 10 Finish: +450)
Denny McCarthy (DFS Salary: $6,700 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +850)
Sam Burns (DFS Salary: $7,200 | Outright Winner: +6500 | Top 10 Finish: +550)
Billy Horschel (DFS Salary: $6,600 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +1000)
Tony Finau (DFS Salary: $8,100 | Outright Winner: +6000 | Top 10 Finish: +500)
Patrick Cantlay (DFS Salary: $9,200 | Outright Winner: +5000 | Top 10 Finish: +400)
Eric Cole (DFS Salary: $6,300 | Outright Winner: +30000 | Top 10 Finish: +1600)
Cam Davis (DFS Salary: $6,300 | Outright Winner: +30000 | Top 10 Finish: +1600)
Alex Noren (DFS Salary: $6,900 | Outright Winner: +10000 | Top 10 Finish: +750)
Bryson DeChambeau (DFS Salary: $10,100 | Outright Winner: +1800 | Top 10 Finish: +200)
Min Woo Lee (DFS Salary: $7,300 | Outright Winner: +6500 | Top 10 Finish: +550)
Cameron Smith (DFS Salary: $8,700 | Outright Winner: +5000 | Top 10 Finish: +350)
Current Form Top 5
Xander Schauffele (DFS Salary: $11,500 | Outright Winner: +1100 | Top 10 Finish: +120)
Rory McIlroy (DFS Salary: $12,100 | Outright Winner: +1100 | Top 10 Finish: +125)
Scottie Scheffler (DFS Salary: $13,000 | Outright Winner: +300 | Top 10 Finish: -250)
Collin Morikawa (DFS Salary: $9,400 | Outright Winner: +1400 | Top 10 Finish: +150)
Bryson DeChambeau (DFS Salary: $10,100 | Outright Winner: +1800 | Top 10 Finish: +200)
Front-Runners
Not a ton of surprises when it comes to this week’s top performers for the Oracle Model. The only thing that comes to my mind is Xander Schauffele is nowhere to be seen. Scottie finally receives top marks this week, showing that not even the Oracle can deny his greatness at the moment. He’s an obvious pick and I already discussed why in the Key Stats page so we will focus on some other front-runner candidates this week.
Viktor Hovland (Oracle Rank: 2 | Salary: $9,800)
Hovland is finally getting some love from the Oracle. It feels like he is one of the guys building towards a big win recently. Maybe not as strong as a Current Form champ like Morikawa but Hovland no doubt has the form to be a valuable asset to draft over the $10,000 plus salary guys especially with his ability to hit the ball off the tee. I like him to have a strong performance this week (might want to get the hedge clippers out and get ready to fade me).
Rory McIllroy (Oracle Rank: 3 | Salary: $12,100)
Rory being near the top of the list makes a lot of sense. He has five top-15 finishes in his last five including two wins. He is known as an excellent driver and ball-striker: two attributes that will give him a great chance to be at the top this week. The question with Rory is always how sharp his short-game is at the moment. I do not think it will be sharp enough to pick over another high-salaried player like Scheffler. But, if you want to fade Scottie and Xander for whatever reason, Rory is the guy to go to.
Value Picks
Tyrell Hatton (Oracle Rank: 4 | Salary: $7,800)
I am a fan of Hatton and his complete meltdowns after poor shots. But I cannot say I have been following him super closely to monitor his current form. He was in the top-10 at the Masters and made the cut at the PGA. If things are going for him and he avoids the epic breakdowns, maybe this value pick will amount to something.
Denny McCarthy (Oracle Rank: 5 | Salary: $6,700)
McCarthy is here all because of the short-game. He leads the field in SG: Putting, so he might be able to putt himself into this tournament. He is someone that tends to stick around the top-30 of the leaderboards, looking to strike hot with the flat stick. He is a guy to have sixth in your lineup hoping for a great week but not expecting anything outside of an okay support week for your top guys.
Sam Burns (Oracle Rank: 6 | Salary: $7,200)
Burns feels like he should be the value pick of the week. He has three top-15 finishes in his last five, and just has a solid overall game. I like him at this price and will be picking him for my main slate lineup.
Billy Horschel (Oracle Rank: 7 | Salary: $6,600)
Horschel, as discussed in the key stats page, really seems to be flying under the radar for this tournament. I don’t expect a win out of him, but with his game and current form I could easily see a top-15 finish from him. Plus, with that low of a salary you could pick your favorite two front-runners (maybe even three if you want to risk picking someone below $6000 too).
Alex Noren (Oracle Rank: 12 | Salary: $6,900)
Noren feels like a hill that I am going to die on. His scrambling stats and approach game, plus his consistent appearances in the top-25 of fields makes him the Oracle’s darling. But, it is starting to seem like he will never be the "get hot” type of player. I’d put him in the McCarthy bottom of the lineup category.
Betting and DFS Top 15: The Memorial Tournament 2024
Shows the model’s top performers and analyzes top picks for Outright Winner and Top-10 Finishes.
Overview
This week, because of the shortened field, I want to shorten the Top-25 of the model to Top-15 (we’ll go back to 25 in future weeks for the larger fields). This should be an exciting week with pretty much all the heavy hitters on Tour meeting up for a Signature Event. Not to mention, it is a Jack Nicklaus tournament and course, where players no doubt want to impress. New addition this week, as in the key stats, I wanted to add some sort of Current Form barometer. So, an additional Oracle’s Top 5 Current Form is included below the model’s estimates. The Current Form list will have some of the same guys as the Top-15 but hopefully it helps you decide who to trust this week and who else to keep an eye on outside of my predictions.
The Oracle Model’s Top 15
Hideki Matsuyama (DFS Salary: $9,000 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +260)
Xander Schauffele (DFS Salary: $10,900 | Outright Winner: +900 | Top 10 Finish: -110)
Tony Finau (DFS Salary: $7,900 | Outright Winner: +5500 | Top 10 Finish: +400)
Tom Kim (DFS Salary: $7,800 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
J.T. Poston (DFS Salary: $7,100 | Outright Winner: +11000 | Top 10 Finish: +700)
Stephan Jaeger (DFS Salary: $7,100 | Outright Winner: +10000 | Top 10 Finish: +650)
Scottie Scheffler (DFS Salary: $12,500 | Outright Winner: +360 | Top 10 Finish: -250)
Jordan Spieth (DFS Salary: $8,600 | Outright Winner: +4000 | Top 10 Finish: +330)
Justin Thomas (DFS Salary: $9,200 | Outright Winner: +2500 | Top 10 Finish: +210)
Brandt Snedeker (DFS Salary: $6,100 | Outright Winner: +200000 | Top 10 Finish: +7500)
Patrick Cantlay (DFS Salary: $9,400 | Outright Winner: +2500 | Top 10 Finish: +230)
Adam Hadwin (DFS Salary: $6,600 | Outright Winner: +18000 | Top 10 Finish: +1000)
Keegan Bradley (DFS Salary: $7,700 | Outright Winner: +6500 | Top 10 Finish: +450)
Denny McCarthy (DFS Salary: $7,600 | Outright Winner: +7500 | Top 10 Finish: +500)
Chris Kirk (DFS Salary: $6,900 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +800)
Current Form Top 5
Xander Schauffele (DFS Salary: $10,900 | Outright Winner: +900 | Top 10 Finish: -110)
Scottie Scheffler (DFS Salary: $12,500 | Outright Winner: +360 | Top 10 Finish: -250)
Collin Morikawa (DFS Salary: $9,800 | Outright Winner: +1400 | Top 10 Finish: +140)
Russell Henley (DFS Salary: $8,000 | Outright Winner: +4000 | Top 10 Finish: +320)
Ludvig Åberg (DFS Salary: $9,500 | Outright Winner: +2200 | Top 10 Finish: +190)
Front-Runners
I already discussed some other front-runners such as Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Justin Thomas in my Key Stats blog and how all three are pretty solid picks. So I will only discuss my favorite of the three and focus on some other prominent players at the top of the model:
Hideki Matsuyama (Oracle Rank: 1 | Salary: $9,000)
With all of the powerhouse players in the field this week, I was not expecting Matsuyama to top the Oracle’s prediction list. His current form has been, comparatively to the top of the field, pretty average with three Top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments including a T6 finish at the Players. What concerns me the most is his lack of playing rounds recently due to issues with his back. There’s no question he has the game, but the Oracle is definitely not an orthopedic expert, leaving this top spot on shaky grounds.
Scottie Scheffler (Oracle Rank: 7 | Salary: $12,500)
I think it would just be insanity to not include Scheffler as a front-runner. I know this blog is mainly data-driven, but I just trust Scottie’s mental toughness more than any player in the World. The Oracle has him at 7, but I think his domination of the key stats and his machine like consistency makes him the top pick of the week. The issue is, salary-wise, that is costly, so hopefully the Oracle can help us figure out who to put with him.
Jordan Spieth (Oracle Rank: 8 | Salary: $8,600)
Spieth is definitely not the 2015 Jordan Spieth we all know and love. But, this season I have seen him improve his form from the past couple of seasons. Recently though, Spieth has no Top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments and one missed cut. With the current form stats, he ranks in the 2nd in the field in SG: Off the Tee perhaps giving him more opportunities to create scoring opportunities. But, he just does not have enough going for him for me to proclaim the Oracle omniscient.
Value Picks
Tony Finau (Oracle Rank: 3 | Salary: $7,900)
Finau is forever stuck in a loop of trying to break through. Xander had a similar thing going on but with more consistent performances than Tony. He currently ranks in the top-10 in the field for Scoring Average and SG: Approach which is probably why the Oracle ranks him so high. Additionally, his last five tournaments he has three Top-25 performances. He just has a lot of talent that puts him in positions to succeed. But, in his last five, he has a negative value for SG: Putting. He just has to take advantage of his chances to become a star, but I like him to have a solid finish this week, making him a valuable below $8,000 player.
J.T. Poston (Oracle Rank: 5 | Salary: $7,100)
Poston is having a really up and down season. He has two Top-25 performances in his last five tournaments including a T5 placing at the RBC Heritage. However, in stronger fields he tends to struggle placing T30 at the Masters, T60 at the Wells Fargo Championship and a missed cut at the PGA Championship. Stats-wise he doesn’t show up in the top lists of any of the key stats either. There is not enough evidence for me to outright trust the Oracle with Poston, but to be fair I said the same thing about Victor Perez last week. Only time will tell.
Long Shots
Brendt Snedeker (Oracle Rank: 10 | Salary: $6,100)
This might be the most shocked I have ever been looking at the Oracle’s predictions. Snedeker has the worst odds to win the tournament, and he ranks 10th in the model. Let’s try to figure out what the heck is going on. His last five tournaments, he has no Top-25 finishes including three consecutive missed cuts in his last three. Stats wise, he does not appear anywhere on the Key Stats top-10 lists. There is literally nothing that makes this prediction intuitive, more so than any of the others. This will be interesting.
Adam Hadwin (Oracle Rank: 12 | Salary: $6,600)
This one makes some more sense in my mind. Hadwin at least has four top-10 finishes this season, and one top-10 in his last five tournaments (albeit jointly at the Zurich Classic). Hadwin missed the cut last week in his home country, so we are looking at a potential bounce back week for the Canadian. I’m not exactly sky high on him, but if picking him allows me to take an extra front-runner it might be worth it.
Betting and DFS Top 25: RBC Canadian Open 2024
Shows the model’s top performers and analyzes top picks for Outright Winner and Top-10 Finishes.
The Oracle Model’s Top 25
What we’re trying to accomplish here is to narrow down the field to help with selecting possible lineup adds or bets. I included each player’s Draftkings DFS salary, as well as their odds for Outright Winner and for a Top 10 Finish as of May 28th. Using a regression model from PGA Tour stats and results for every RBC Canadian Open since 2007. I cannot claim to have made a fortune in the past weeks since starting the model. I’ve just started to make better picks than without data modeling. That is why when it comes to the analysis of some of these picks I want to be honest about their current form (good or bad) and determine where the model has flaws. So, I hope these picks help make the playing field manageable, but there is never a guarantee for success. Here is the top-25 for this week’s model:
Rory McIlroy (DFS Salary: $12,100 | Outright Winner: +360 | Top 10 Finish: -175 )
Maverick McNealy (DFS Salary: $9,200 | Outright Winner: +3000 | Top 10 Finish: +330)
Alex Noren (DFS Salary: $9,900 | Outright Winner: +2200 | Top 10 Finish: +240 )
Keith Mitchell (DFS Salary: $8,700 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Victor Perez (DFS Salary: $6,300 | Outright Winner: +15000 | Top 10 Finish: +1100)
Jorge Campillo (DFS Salary: $6,100 | Outright Winner: +18000 | Top 10 Finish: +1400)
Kevin Yu (DFS Salary: $7,500 | Outright Winner: +6500 | Top 10 Finish: +600 )
Doug Ghim (DFS Salary: $7,400 | Outright Winner: +6000 | Top 10 Finish: +550)
Aaron Rai (DFS Salary: $8,900 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +330)
Chan Kim (DFS Salary: $6,600 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +1000)
Patton Kizzire (DFS Salary: $6,300 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +1100)
Matt Wallace (DFS Salary: $7,600 | Outright Winner: +7500 | Top 10 Finish: +650)
Akshay Bhatia (DFS Salary: $8,100 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +450)
Sahith Theegala (DFS Salary: $10,500 | Outright Winner: +1800 | Top 10 Finish: +220)
Ryan Palmer (DFS Salary: $5,300 | Outright Winner: +40000 | Top 10 Finish: +2500)
Kevin Streelman (DFS Salary: $5,400 | Outright Winner: +30000 | Top 10 Finish: +2000)
Kevin Tway (DFS Salary: $6,700 | Outright Winner: +15000 | Top 10 Finish: +1100)
Ben Griffin (DFS Salary: $7,500 | Outright Winner: +7500 | Top 10 Finish: +650)
Joseph Bramlett (DFS Salary: $6,500 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +1000)
Andrew Novak (DFS Salary: $6,500 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +1100)
Seamus Power (DFS Salary: $7,200 | Outright Winner: +8000 | Top 10 Finish: +750)
Parker Coody (DFS Salary: $6,000 | Outright Winner: +20000 | Top 10 Finish: +1400)
Dylan Wu (DFS Salary: $6,200 | Outright Winner: +18000 | Top 10 Finish: +1200)
K.H. Lee (DFS Salary: $6,700 | Outright Winner: +11000 | Top 10 Finish: +900)
David Lipsky (DFS Salary: $5,400 | Outright Winner: +30000 | Top 10 Finish: +2000)
Front-Runners
Rory McIllroy ($12,100)
Rory has been in fine form all season long, so it is no surprise that everyone, including my model, has him as the top contender this week. In his last five tournaments he has 4 top-25 finishes including two wins and prior to that a 3rd place finish at the Valero Open. The question with Rory is how consistent his short-game will be. He feels like a no-doubter top-10 finisher, and in the mix for a top-5 or outright win.
Maverick McNealy ($9,200)
As mentioned in the key stats page, this week seems to be shaping towards a Maverick McNealy breakout. The field is strong but not quite as strong as next week’s signature event will be. His short-game has been pretty good, with the only thing lacking being his putter which seems poised to catch fire. He is my top pick for DFS lineups this week, so if you’re a pessimist like me, you might want to hedge me and bet for him to miss the cut.
Alex Noren ($9,900)
Noren has quickly become the analytics top pick each week, playing only to prove people like me right. His approach and short-game combination makes him a dangerous player every tournament. Overall, I like him to have a top-10 finish this week but I don’t know if it will extend to being outright winner.
Value Picks
Victor Perez ($6,300)
Perez came in the top-5 of our Top Picks. To be transparent, there is a cut-off after the top-4 players in terms of the probability of a strong finish. Perez has not been in a form for me to sit here and say trust me on this. No top-25 finishes and two missed cuts in his last five tournaments. The reason he might be so high up is because he does have a fairly strong approach game ranking in the top-10 for Greens in Regulation percentage. But, sometimes the oracle’s model is mysterious in it’s ways, and sometimes it is miserably wrong so this value pick should be taken with a grain of salt.
Patton Kizzire ($6,300)
This value pick seems more likely to have some real value. In his last five tournaments, Kizzire has 3 top-25 finishes including a T10 placing at the Myrtle Beach Classic. He seems to be out of his slump after a stretch of 6 consecutive missed cuts earlier in the season. Perhaps he is shaping into form for a strong finish this week.
Long Shot
Kevin Streelman ($5,400)
This seems like a guy to pick only if you really want to stack the top of your lineup. He has no top-25 finishes this year and more missed cuts than made this season. Very much a long-shot for a reason.