Betting and DFS Top 25: RBC Canadian Open 2024
The Oracle Model’s Top 25
What we’re trying to accomplish here is to narrow down the field to help with selecting possible lineup adds or bets. I included each player’s Draftkings DFS salary, as well as their odds for Outright Winner and for a Top 10 Finish as of May 28th. Using a regression model from PGA Tour stats and results for every RBC Canadian Open since 2007. I cannot claim to have made a fortune in the past weeks since starting the model. I’ve just started to make better picks than without data modeling. That is why when it comes to the analysis of some of these picks I want to be honest about their current form (good or bad) and determine where the model has flaws. So, I hope these picks help make the playing field manageable, but there is never a guarantee for success. Here is the top-25 for this week’s model:
Rory McIlroy (DFS Salary: $12,100 | Outright Winner: +360 | Top 10 Finish: -175 )
Maverick McNealy (DFS Salary: $9,200 | Outright Winner: +3000 | Top 10 Finish: +330)
Alex Noren (DFS Salary: $9,900 | Outright Winner: +2200 | Top 10 Finish: +240 )
Keith Mitchell (DFS Salary: $8,700 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Victor Perez (DFS Salary: $6,300 | Outright Winner: +15000 | Top 10 Finish: +1100)
Jorge Campillo (DFS Salary: $6,100 | Outright Winner: +18000 | Top 10 Finish: +1400)
Kevin Yu (DFS Salary: $7,500 | Outright Winner: +6500 | Top 10 Finish: +600 )
Doug Ghim (DFS Salary: $7,400 | Outright Winner: +6000 | Top 10 Finish: +550)
Aaron Rai (DFS Salary: $8,900 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +330)
Chan Kim (DFS Salary: $6,600 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +1000)
Patton Kizzire (DFS Salary: $6,300 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +1100)
Matt Wallace (DFS Salary: $7,600 | Outright Winner: +7500 | Top 10 Finish: +650)
Akshay Bhatia (DFS Salary: $8,100 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +450)
Sahith Theegala (DFS Salary: $10,500 | Outright Winner: +1800 | Top 10 Finish: +220)
Ryan Palmer (DFS Salary: $5,300 | Outright Winner: +40000 | Top 10 Finish: +2500)
Kevin Streelman (DFS Salary: $5,400 | Outright Winner: +30000 | Top 10 Finish: +2000)
Kevin Tway (DFS Salary: $6,700 | Outright Winner: +15000 | Top 10 Finish: +1100)
Ben Griffin (DFS Salary: $7,500 | Outright Winner: +7500 | Top 10 Finish: +650)
Joseph Bramlett (DFS Salary: $6,500 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +1000)
Andrew Novak (DFS Salary: $6,500 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +1100)
Seamus Power (DFS Salary: $7,200 | Outright Winner: +8000 | Top 10 Finish: +750)
Parker Coody (DFS Salary: $6,000 | Outright Winner: +20000 | Top 10 Finish: +1400)
Dylan Wu (DFS Salary: $6,200 | Outright Winner: +18000 | Top 10 Finish: +1200)
K.H. Lee (DFS Salary: $6,700 | Outright Winner: +11000 | Top 10 Finish: +900)
David Lipsky (DFS Salary: $5,400 | Outright Winner: +30000 | Top 10 Finish: +2000)
Front-Runners
Rory McIllroy ($12,100)
Rory has been in fine form all season long, so it is no surprise that everyone, including my model, has him as the top contender this week. In his last five tournaments he has 4 top-25 finishes including two wins and prior to that a 3rd place finish at the Valero Open. The question with Rory is how consistent his short-game will be. He feels like a no-doubter top-10 finisher, and in the mix for a top-5 or outright win.
Maverick McNealy ($9,200)
As mentioned in the key stats page, this week seems to be shaping towards a Maverick McNealy breakout. The field is strong but not quite as strong as next week’s signature event will be. His short-game has been pretty good, with the only thing lacking being his putter which seems poised to catch fire. He is my top pick for DFS lineups this week, so if you’re a pessimist like me, you might want to hedge me and bet for him to miss the cut.
Alex Noren ($9,900)
Noren has quickly become the analytics top pick each week, playing only to prove people like me right. His approach and short-game combination makes him a dangerous player every tournament. Overall, I like him to have a top-10 finish this week but I don’t know if it will extend to being outright winner.
Value Picks
Victor Perez ($6,300)
Perez came in the top-5 of our Top Picks. To be transparent, there is a cut-off after the top-4 players in terms of the probability of a strong finish. Perez has not been in a form for me to sit here and say trust me on this. No top-25 finishes and two missed cuts in his last five tournaments. The reason he might be so high up is because he does have a fairly strong approach game ranking in the top-10 for Greens in Regulation percentage. But, sometimes the oracle’s model is mysterious in it’s ways, and sometimes it is miserably wrong so this value pick should be taken with a grain of salt.
Patton Kizzire ($6,300)
This value pick seems more likely to have some real value. In his last five tournaments, Kizzire has 3 top-25 finishes including a T10 placing at the Myrtle Beach Classic. He seems to be out of his slump after a stretch of 6 consecutive missed cuts earlier in the season. Perhaps he is shaping into form for a strong finish this week.
Long Shot
Kevin Streelman ($5,400)
This seems like a guy to pick only if you really want to stack the top of your lineup. He has no top-25 finishes this year and more missed cuts than made this season. Very much a long-shot for a reason.
