Betting and DFS Top 15: The Memorial Tournament 2024
Overview
This week, because of the shortened field, I want to shorten the Top-25 of the model to Top-15 (we’ll go back to 25 in future weeks for the larger fields). This should be an exciting week with pretty much all the heavy hitters on Tour meeting up for a Signature Event. Not to mention, it is a Jack Nicklaus tournament and course, where players no doubt want to impress. New addition this week, as in the key stats, I wanted to add some sort of Current Form barometer. So, an additional Oracle’s Top 5 Current Form is included below the model’s estimates. The Current Form list will have some of the same guys as the Top-15 but hopefully it helps you decide who to trust this week and who else to keep an eye on outside of my predictions.
The Oracle Model’s Top 15
Hideki Matsuyama (DFS Salary: $9,000 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +260)
Xander Schauffele (DFS Salary: $10,900 | Outright Winner: +900 | Top 10 Finish: -110)
Tony Finau (DFS Salary: $7,900 | Outright Winner: +5500 | Top 10 Finish: +400)
Tom Kim (DFS Salary: $7,800 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
J.T. Poston (DFS Salary: $7,100 | Outright Winner: +11000 | Top 10 Finish: +700)
Stephan Jaeger (DFS Salary: $7,100 | Outright Winner: +10000 | Top 10 Finish: +650)
Scottie Scheffler (DFS Salary: $12,500 | Outright Winner: +360 | Top 10 Finish: -250)
Jordan Spieth (DFS Salary: $8,600 | Outright Winner: +4000 | Top 10 Finish: +330)
Justin Thomas (DFS Salary: $9,200 | Outright Winner: +2500 | Top 10 Finish: +210)
Brandt Snedeker (DFS Salary: $6,100 | Outright Winner: +200000 | Top 10 Finish: +7500)
Patrick Cantlay (DFS Salary: $9,400 | Outright Winner: +2500 | Top 10 Finish: +230)
Adam Hadwin (DFS Salary: $6,600 | Outright Winner: +18000 | Top 10 Finish: +1000)
Keegan Bradley (DFS Salary: $7,700 | Outright Winner: +6500 | Top 10 Finish: +450)
Denny McCarthy (DFS Salary: $7,600 | Outright Winner: +7500 | Top 10 Finish: +500)
Chris Kirk (DFS Salary: $6,900 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +800)
Current Form Top 5
Xander Schauffele (DFS Salary: $10,900 | Outright Winner: +900 | Top 10 Finish: -110)
Scottie Scheffler (DFS Salary: $12,500 | Outright Winner: +360 | Top 10 Finish: -250)
Collin Morikawa (DFS Salary: $9,800 | Outright Winner: +1400 | Top 10 Finish: +140)
Russell Henley (DFS Salary: $8,000 | Outright Winner: +4000 | Top 10 Finish: +320)
Ludvig Åberg (DFS Salary: $9,500 | Outright Winner: +2200 | Top 10 Finish: +190)
Front-Runners
I already discussed some other front-runners such as Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Justin Thomas in my Key Stats blog and how all three are pretty solid picks. So I will only discuss my favorite of the three and focus on some other prominent players at the top of the model:
Hideki Matsuyama (Oracle Rank: 1 | Salary: $9,000)
With all of the powerhouse players in the field this week, I was not expecting Matsuyama to top the Oracle’s prediction list. His current form has been, comparatively to the top of the field, pretty average with three Top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments including a T6 finish at the Players. What concerns me the most is his lack of playing rounds recently due to issues with his back. There’s no question he has the game, but the Oracle is definitely not an orthopedic expert, leaving this top spot on shaky grounds.
Scottie Scheffler (Oracle Rank: 7 | Salary: $12,500)
I think it would just be insanity to not include Scheffler as a front-runner. I know this blog is mainly data-driven, but I just trust Scottie’s mental toughness more than any player in the World. The Oracle has him at 7, but I think his domination of the key stats and his machine like consistency makes him the top pick of the week. The issue is, salary-wise, that is costly, so hopefully the Oracle can help us figure out who to put with him.
Jordan Spieth (Oracle Rank: 8 | Salary: $8,600)
Spieth is definitely not the 2015 Jordan Spieth we all know and love. But, this season I have seen him improve his form from the past couple of seasons. Recently though, Spieth has no Top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments and one missed cut. With the current form stats, he ranks in the 2nd in the field in SG: Off the Tee perhaps giving him more opportunities to create scoring opportunities. But, he just does not have enough going for him for me to proclaim the Oracle omniscient.
Value Picks
Tony Finau (Oracle Rank: 3 | Salary: $7,900)
Finau is forever stuck in a loop of trying to break through. Xander had a similar thing going on but with more consistent performances than Tony. He currently ranks in the top-10 in the field for Scoring Average and SG: Approach which is probably why the Oracle ranks him so high. Additionally, his last five tournaments he has three Top-25 performances. He just has a lot of talent that puts him in positions to succeed. But, in his last five, he has a negative value for SG: Putting. He just has to take advantage of his chances to become a star, but I like him to have a solid finish this week, making him a valuable below $8,000 player.
J.T. Poston (Oracle Rank: 5 | Salary: $7,100)
Poston is having a really up and down season. He has two Top-25 performances in his last five tournaments including a T5 placing at the RBC Heritage. However, in stronger fields he tends to struggle placing T30 at the Masters, T60 at the Wells Fargo Championship and a missed cut at the PGA Championship. Stats-wise he doesn’t show up in the top lists of any of the key stats either. There is not enough evidence for me to outright trust the Oracle with Poston, but to be fair I said the same thing about Victor Perez last week. Only time will tell.
Long Shots
Brendt Snedeker (Oracle Rank: 10 | Salary: $6,100)
This might be the most shocked I have ever been looking at the Oracle’s predictions. Snedeker has the worst odds to win the tournament, and he ranks 10th in the model. Let’s try to figure out what the heck is going on. His last five tournaments, he has no Top-25 finishes including three consecutive missed cuts in his last three. Stats wise, he does not appear anywhere on the Key Stats top-10 lists. There is literally nothing that makes this prediction intuitive, more so than any of the others. This will be interesting.
Adam Hadwin (Oracle Rank: 12 | Salary: $6,600)
This one makes some more sense in my mind. Hadwin at least has four top-10 finishes this season, and one top-10 in his last five tournaments (albeit jointly at the Zurich Classic). Hadwin missed the cut last week in his home country, so we are looking at a potential bounce back week for the Canadian. I’m not exactly sky high on him, but if picking him allows me to take an extra front-runner it might be worth it.
