Betting and DFS Top 15: Travelers Championship (2024)
Overview
Well, we follow up a wild major championship with another signature event. This is really the peak of golf at the moment. We have Scottie trying to re-assert himself as the top guy on Tour. Morikawa trying to maintain his form, and guys like Spieth and Thomas trying to find their form once again. The Frenchman Pavon and the Swede Aberg both trying to build off their success this season. A lot of storylines, but the biggest story for me each week is who will the Oracle mark as due for a strong finish this week.
Will try to update based on withdrawals and new adds to field.
Update: Changes made after Rory McIllroy’s withdrawal.
The Oracle Model’s Top 15
Jordan Spieth (DFS Salary: $8,200 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Billy Horschel (DFS Salary: $7,300 | Outright Winner: +7500 | Top 10 Finish: +500)
Scottie Scheffler (DFS Salary: $12,500 | Outright Winner: +400 | Top 10 Finish: -225)
Sungjae Im (DFS Salary: $7,900 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Sam Burns (DFS Salary: $9,000 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +280)
Keegan Bradley (DFS Salary: $8,700 | Outright Winner: +5000 | Top 10 Finish: +400)
Sahith Theegala (DFS Salary: $8,800 | Outright Winner: +3500 | Top 10 Finish: +280)
Max Homa (DFS Salary: $7,800 | Outright Winner: +5000 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Shane Lowry (DFS Salary: $7,800 | Outright Winner: +7000 | Top 10 Finish: +500)
Corey Conners (DFS Salary: $8,400 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Akshay Bhatia (DFS Salary: $7,200 | Outright Winner: +9000 | Top 10 Finish: +600)
Tom Hoge (DFS Salary: $7,000 | Outright Winner: +8000 | Top 10 Finish: +600)
Ludvig Åberg (DFS Salary: $10,200 | Outright Winner: +1600 | Top 10 Finish: +150)
Victor Perez (DFS Salary: $6,500 | Outright Winner: +18000 | Top 10 Finish: +1100)
Byeong Hun An (DFS Salary: $7,600 | Outright Winner: +6000 | Top 10 Finish: +450)
Current Form Top 5
Collin Morikawa (DFS Salary: $9,800 | Outright Winner: +1400 | Top 10 Finish: +140)
Xander Schauffele (DFS Salary: $11,200 | Outright Winner: +750 | Top 10 Finish: -125)
Scottie Scheffler (DFS Salary: $12,500 | Outright Winner: +400 | Top 10 Finish: -225)
Corey Conners (DFS Salary: $8,400 | Outright Winner: +4500 | Top 10 Finish: +360)
Hideki Matsuyama (DFS Salary: $9,200 | Outright Winner: +2500 | Top 10 Finish: +220)
Front-Runners
Definitely some surprises on and off the board this week. The top-2 for starters was a little bit shocking given neither Spieth nor Horschel tally many of the key stats. No Morikawa or Schauffele despite their presence in a lot of the key stat leaders. I think both of those guys are still great front-runner type picks. However, the Oracle works in its own way and I have to respect the integrity of the top list and discuss those players below.
Jordan Spieth (Oracle Rank: 1 | Current Form: 25 | Salary: $8,200)
Well this is a real leap of faith with the Oracle this week. Last week it was supposed to be an easy top spot with Scottie finally gracing number one, but I really do not see the logic behind this pick. Spieth does not rank the top of any of the key stat categories this week besides driving distance. The one thing he does have going for him is he has been strong off the tee lately. In his last five tournaments, he has zero top-25 finishes. I might put him in one of my lineups to make sure I don’t anger the Oracle, but for the most part I will be fading this pick.
Scottie Scheffler (Oracle Rank: 3 | Current Form: 3 | Salary: $12,500)
As the leader in the bounce back stat category, it feels fitting that Scottie would recover from his poor showing last week. He really struggled on the greens at Pinehurst. But, he certainly was not alone in that regard. The more concerning part about the first couple of rounds was some poor shots off the tee and with his approach. The weekend ball-striking seemed better, but if you’re like me you might be uncertain if he is as dominant moving forward. Last year, he started out strong and then other guys like Hovland shaped up later in the year. All that being said, Scottie is probably more likely to shut me up and win than he is to breakdown and lose his game.
Ludvig Aberg (Oracle Rank: 13 | Current Form: 15 | Salary: $10,200)
Another guy in both blog pages this week, Aberg just looks the part of a contender. Great from tee to green and plays fast paced golf, there really is nothing to hate about this kid. The scrambling around the green is his biggest weakness right now, but I would not be shocked if he didn’t need to scramble a whole lot this week.
Value Picks
The value picks are peppered with some familiar faces for the Oracle like Billy Horschel as well as some new ones that lean towards more deep ball and approach game players. Here’s a breakdown on some of the value picks featured this week.
Billy Horschel (Oracle Rank: 2 | Current Form: 35 | Salary: $7,300)
Horschel was a decent final round away from being an absolute steal last week. But the game is four rounds for a reason and he could not pull it off. This week, on a sponsorship exemption bid, Horschel is looking to prove the Oracle right. In his last five tournaments, he has three top-25 finishes. The strength of his game right now is the putter. It has kept him around the top-30 of leaderboards. But, his ball-striking will have to be better if he wants to be worthy of the 2nd spot of the Oracle list.
Max Homa (Oracle Rank: 8 | Current Form: 29 | Salary: $7,800)
Homa is not having the season he would have hoped for. It seems like the tougher the field, the more he disappears in the crowd. He has two top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments including T22 at the Memorial so there is some hope. But, missing the cut last week and his struggles off the tee makes it difficult to see his path. He does have a good approach and short game, so he might be a good support player that you hope finds form.
Akshay Bhatia (Oracle Rank: 11 | Current Form: 38 | Salary: $7,200)
Bhatia’s case for a value pick comes from his most recent performances. Two top-25 finishes in his last five, including a T16 finish last week at the US Open. He has been excellent off the tee, and good enough with his approach game to be considered a decent support player this week. The weakness has been with his short game and putting. With his last two tournaments, I think he is worth giving a shot at this price.
Tom Hoge (Oracle Rank: 12 | Current Form: 37 | Salary: $7,000)
Hoge is known for having a strong approach game. It makes him an appealing pick to get hot on a given week. Like Bhatia, Hoge has been struggling with his short game. In his last five, he has two top-25 finishes including a T23 at the PGA Championship. His missed cut last week is making me weary, but he is cheap so he will probably make an appearance in at least one of my lineups.
Victor Perez (Oracle Rank: 14 | Current Form: 43 | Salary: $6,500)
Perez has to be disappointed with another missed cut at a major this year. It seemed like he would have a strong showing given his prior two tournaments he finished T12 at the stacked Memorial and 3rd at the Canadian Open. Perez has a pretty well-balanced game. His weakest point right now is off the tee. I would not be too concerned with last week given how difficult Pinehurst played. The strong showing in the Memorial makes me believe Perez at this price is worth a serious look.
