Betting and DFS Top 15: The US Open (2024)
Overview
I am honestly really excited for this week. This all started when I actually won some money using modeling techniques for the Masters and then have been in the money more times then when I was just picking players myself. To be transparent, my DFS lineups of late have not been great. I have been overthinking it a bit too much. I wrote last week about how I believe Adam Hadwin is a good long shot value pick and then somehow decided to draft someone else over him. Writing the blog, although helpful for me in sort of evaluating each player in the model rather than just taking it at face value, has also messed me up both weeks with my own lineup process. Hopefully, you are a lot smarter in your picking process and have been able to glean some good picks from me without overthinking it.
This week is all about bridging information gaps. LIV Tour players do not have PGA Tour data, but several of them are heavy hitters. I tried my best to get some lag data, and world golf data to try to help discern which LIV guys will be in the mix. I decided to stick with the Top 15 + Top 5 Current Form format. No real reason behind it other than the information gaps did make a lot of guys towards the middle of the model to have the same probability of a strong result, which to me was not intuitive. The Top 15 are all guys that were not clumped together due to lack of data. Finally, I combined the Long Shots and Value Picks section this week.
UPDATE: Changes made because of Jon Rahm’s withdrawal.
The Oracle Model’s Top 15
Scottie Scheffler (DFS Salary: $13,000 | Outright Winner: +300 | Top 10 Finish: -250)
Viktor Hovland (DFS Salary: $9,800 | Outright Winner: +2000 | Top 10 Finish: +200)
Rory McIlroy (DFS Salary: $12,100 | Outright Winner: +1100 | Top 10 Finish: +125)
Tyrell Hatton (DFS Salary: $7,800 | Outright Winner: +5500 | Top 10 Finish: +450)
Denny McCarthy (DFS Salary: $6,700 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +850)
Sam Burns (DFS Salary: $7,200 | Outright Winner: +6500 | Top 10 Finish: +550)
Billy Horschel (DFS Salary: $6,600 | Outright Winner: +13000 | Top 10 Finish: +1000)
Tony Finau (DFS Salary: $8,100 | Outright Winner: +6000 | Top 10 Finish: +500)
Patrick Cantlay (DFS Salary: $9,200 | Outright Winner: +5000 | Top 10 Finish: +400)
Eric Cole (DFS Salary: $6,300 | Outright Winner: +30000 | Top 10 Finish: +1600)
Cam Davis (DFS Salary: $6,300 | Outright Winner: +30000 | Top 10 Finish: +1600)
Alex Noren (DFS Salary: $6,900 | Outright Winner: +10000 | Top 10 Finish: +750)
Bryson DeChambeau (DFS Salary: $10,100 | Outright Winner: +1800 | Top 10 Finish: +200)
Min Woo Lee (DFS Salary: $7,300 | Outright Winner: +6500 | Top 10 Finish: +550)
Cameron Smith (DFS Salary: $8,700 | Outright Winner: +5000 | Top 10 Finish: +350)
Current Form Top 5
Xander Schauffele (DFS Salary: $11,500 | Outright Winner: +1100 | Top 10 Finish: +120)
Rory McIlroy (DFS Salary: $12,100 | Outright Winner: +1100 | Top 10 Finish: +125)
Scottie Scheffler (DFS Salary: $13,000 | Outright Winner: +300 | Top 10 Finish: -250)
Collin Morikawa (DFS Salary: $9,400 | Outright Winner: +1400 | Top 10 Finish: +150)
Bryson DeChambeau (DFS Salary: $10,100 | Outright Winner: +1800 | Top 10 Finish: +200)
Front-Runners
Not a ton of surprises when it comes to this week’s top performers for the Oracle Model. The only thing that comes to my mind is Xander Schauffele is nowhere to be seen. Scottie finally receives top marks this week, showing that not even the Oracle can deny his greatness at the moment. He’s an obvious pick and I already discussed why in the Key Stats page so we will focus on some other front-runner candidates this week.
Viktor Hovland (Oracle Rank: 2 | Salary: $9,800)
Hovland is finally getting some love from the Oracle. It feels like he is one of the guys building towards a big win recently. Maybe not as strong as a Current Form champ like Morikawa but Hovland no doubt has the form to be a valuable asset to draft over the $10,000 plus salary guys especially with his ability to hit the ball off the tee. I like him to have a strong performance this week (might want to get the hedge clippers out and get ready to fade me).
Rory McIllroy (Oracle Rank: 3 | Salary: $12,100)
Rory being near the top of the list makes a lot of sense. He has five top-15 finishes in his last five including two wins. He is known as an excellent driver and ball-striker: two attributes that will give him a great chance to be at the top this week. The question with Rory is always how sharp his short-game is at the moment. I do not think it will be sharp enough to pick over another high-salaried player like Scheffler. But, if you want to fade Scottie and Xander for whatever reason, Rory is the guy to go to.
Value Picks
Tyrell Hatton (Oracle Rank: 4 | Salary: $7,800)
I am a fan of Hatton and his complete meltdowns after poor shots. But I cannot say I have been following him super closely to monitor his current form. He was in the top-10 at the Masters and made the cut at the PGA. If things are going for him and he avoids the epic breakdowns, maybe this value pick will amount to something.
Denny McCarthy (Oracle Rank: 5 | Salary: $6,700)
McCarthy is here all because of the short-game. He leads the field in SG: Putting, so he might be able to putt himself into this tournament. He is someone that tends to stick around the top-30 of the leaderboards, looking to strike hot with the flat stick. He is a guy to have sixth in your lineup hoping for a great week but not expecting anything outside of an okay support week for your top guys.
Sam Burns (Oracle Rank: 6 | Salary: $7,200)
Burns feels like he should be the value pick of the week. He has three top-15 finishes in his last five, and just has a solid overall game. I like him at this price and will be picking him for my main slate lineup.
Billy Horschel (Oracle Rank: 7 | Salary: $6,600)
Horschel, as discussed in the key stats page, really seems to be flying under the radar for this tournament. I don’t expect a win out of him, but with his game and current form I could easily see a top-15 finish from him. Plus, with that low of a salary you could pick your favorite two front-runners (maybe even three if you want to risk picking someone below $6000 too).
Alex Noren (Oracle Rank: 12 | Salary: $6,900)
Noren feels like a hill that I am going to die on. His scrambling stats and approach game, plus his consistent appearances in the top-25 of fields makes him the Oracle’s darling. But, it is starting to seem like he will never be the "get hot” type of player. I’d put him in the McCarthy bottom of the lineup category.
