Key Stats: RBC Canadian Open 2024

Key Stats based on the data modeling from Canadian Open results going back to 2007.

I cannot claim that my model has been world-record breaking, but since using it I have started to make better picks and better determine who the true contenders are.

Scoring Average

A bit of an obvious one that will serve as the baseline for who has been playing well all season long:

Top 10 in the Field

1. Alex Noren (69.87)

2. Rory McIllroy (70.071)

3. Davis Thompson (70.232)

4. Keith Mitchell (70.272)

5. Maverick McNealy (70.304)

6. Sahith Theegala (70.329)

7. Doug Ghim (70.418)

8. Aaron Rai (70.497)

9. Akshay Bhatia (70.499)

10. Jorge Campillo (70.535)

Strokes Gained: Putting

The putting stats tend to fall to background when it comes to most of my modeling but this week it is back to the forefront as the most important stat not including Scoring Average. There is not as many typical contenders in this mix but perhaps you can find some sleeper picks and weed out the top of the leaderboards:

Top 10 in the Field

1. Aaron Baddeley

2. Sahith Theegala

3. Justin Suh

4. Matt Kuchar

5. Taylor Pendrith

6. Beau Hossler

7. Erik Van Rooyen

8. Mackenzie Hughes

9. Ben Griffin

10. Zach Johnson

Scrambling

Recovering from tough situations can save a tournament. Scrambling came in at number two in importance amongst the performance stats. These are the top guys this week:

Top 10 in the Field

1. Alex Noren

2. Aaron Baddeley

3. Greyson Sigg

4. Tommy Fleetwood

5. Mackenzie Hughes

6. Maverick McNealy

7. Ben Silverman

8. Ben Griffin

9. Jorge Campillo

10. Nate Lashley

Greens in Regulation

It always helps to have a look at birdie. These players will likely have looks all week long:

Top 10 in the Field

1. Corey Conners

2. Patton Kizzire

3. Alex Noren

4. Aaron Rai

5. Kevin Yu

6. Lanto Griffin

7. Jhonattan Vegas

8. Daniel Berger

9. Victor Perez

10. Keith Mitchell

Frequent Flyers

Frequent Flyer Runner-Ups

Eight players (Aaron Baddeley, Aaron Rai, Ben Griffin, Jorge Campillo, Keith Mitchell, Mackenzie Hughes, Maverick McNealy, Sahith Theegala) showed up on two of the top 10 lists for our key stats. Here is a quick breakdown of each where we will try to determine the true contenders:

Aaron Baddeley

This one seems like a bit of a long-shot as Aaron Baddeley has not necessarily been tearing it up with only one Top-25 finish in his last five starts. But, he is at the top the Strokes Gained Putting list, and number two in Scrambling. For our other key stats, Baddeley ranks 46th in Scoring Average and 111th in Greens in Regulation percentage. So, it seems like Aaron might be able to knock down his chances but might not get the number of looks you’d really want to consider him a contender.

Aaron Rai

This one has a little bit more juice to it as Aaron Rai has two Top-25 finishes including a top-5 finish at the Byron Nelson a month ago. Rai ranks 8th in Scoring Average and 4th in Greens in Regulation amongst the field. For our other key stats, he ranks just outside the top-10 (12th) in Scrambling and 82nd in Strokes Gained: Putting. So, you can definitely mark him down as a true contender, but he will have to raise the level of his putting to get the job done.

Ben Griffin

Ben Griffin is a bit of a wild card amongst these frequent flyers. In his last five tournaments he has three top-25 performances (T-16, T-14, T-13), but watch out because he also has two Missed Cuts. Griffin ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 8th in Scrambling, so his strengths are around the green and on the green. For our other key stats Griffin ranks just outside the top-10 (12th) in Scoring Average and 62nd in Greens in Regulation percentage. I would classify him as a true contender, but he will have to improve his approach game to put him over the top.

Jorge Campillo

Campillo, in all honesty, is not someone I have followed closely. I was surprised to see his name in the top-10 Scoring Average list. All that being said, Campillo has been in pretty decent form, with three top-25 finishes in his last five starts including a T4 finish at the Myrtle Beach Championship (bit of a weakened field but someone has to place). As mentioned, Campillo rounds out the top-10 in Scoring Average and ranks 9th in Scrambling. For our other key stats, Campillo ranks 60th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 71st in Greens in Regulation percentage. All this plus his missed cut last week leads me to believe Campillo cannot be labeled a true contender.

Keith Mitchell

Keith Mitchell has become a top pick for my model each week. It has not really paid off yet as Mitchell has been pretty much middle of the pack with two top-25 finishes in his last five appearances. But Mitchell does rank 4th in the field in Scoring Average and 10th in Greens in Regulation. For our other key stats, Mitchell ranks 100th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 42nd in Scrambling. My heart wants to back his constant appearance near the top of my model, but I’d stay away from calling him a true contender.

Mackenzie Hughes

The lone Canadian amongst the Frequent Flyers is Mackenzie Hughes. Hughes has been a little bit up and down recently with a Missed Cut at the PGA Championship but two top-15 finishes in his last five showings including a T6 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship with a very strong field. Ranking 8th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 5th in Scrambling, it would seem likely that the national hero might make a strong showing this week. For our other key stats, Hughes ranks 48th in Scoring Average and 106th in Greens in Regulation percentage. This one feels like a toss-up. Just following the stats it would be tough to call him a true contender, but his strong finish at the Wells Fargo at least gives you a reason to hope the Canadian can pull off some hometown magic.

Maverick McNealy

This might be the best week to be a Maverick McNealy fan (if those really exist outside of the McNealy family). McNealy hasn’t been outrageously strong with only two top-25 finishes in his last five appearances, although both came in his last two tournaments so perhaps he is rounding into form. McNealy ranks 5th in Scoring Average in the field and 6th in Scrambling. For our other key stats, he ranks 25th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 66th in Greens in Regulation. Not world-beating especially with his approach game, but what has me high on McNealy is that he led the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting last year. If he can find that putting stroke again perhaps he can be considered a true contender, at the very least a strong finisher.

Sahith Theegala

You probably don’t need me telling you that Sahith Theegala is a true contender in this field. Right now he has the star power, and he has two top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments including an eye opening 2nd place finish at the RBC Heritage and a strong showing of T12 at the PGA Championship. In this field, Theegala ranks 6th in Scoring Average and 2nd in Strokes Gained: Putting. For our other key stats, he ranks 39th in Scrambling and 16th in Greens in Regulation percentage. He might need to sharpen up his touch around the green, but Theegala feels poised for a win, and the stats seem to be pointing to the fact he is a true contender to do it this week.

Frequent Flyer Winner: Alex Noren

The player that wins the frequent flyer award this week is Alex Noren. Not a total surprise for the analytics darling. Additionally, Noren has finished in the top-25 in all of his past five tournaments including a top-15 finish at the PGA Championship and a 3rd place finish in the Byron Nelson. The only key stat he is not in the top 10 is Strokes Gained: Putting where he ranks 43rd in the field. So, it seems as though he is the player most likely to get great looks to score this week. Whether or not he capitalizes on those looks is the question.