Key Stats: The Memorial Tournament 2024

Key Stats based on the data modeling from The Memorial Tournament results going back to 2007.

I cannot claim that my model has been world-record breaking, but since using it I have started to make better picks and better determine who the true contenders are.

Scoring Average

Scoring Average actually was not the most important stat this week. This is probably a result of the tournament being a Signature Event, creating a strong field in which everyone’s Scoring Average is pretty close. I still want to utilize it as a baseline statistic for the most consistent players this season.

Top 10 in the Field

1. Scottie Scheffler

2. Xander Schauffele

3. Rory McIlroy

4. Billy Horschel

5. Alex Noren

6. Davis Thompson

7. Ludvig Åberg

8. Ben Griffin

9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout

10. Justin Thomas

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green

This week’s model was dominated by the Strokes Gained statistics. It makes sense because every little edge over the competition counts this week. The top performance statistic in terms of importance to the model was Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. When you look at the list below you can probably see why; Big time players that have won big time tournaments.

Top 10 in the Field

1. Scottie Scheffler

2. Xander Schauffele

3. Hideki Matsuyama

4. Rory McIlroy

5. Justin Thomas

6. Si Woo Kim

7. Tony Finau

8. Corey Conners

9. Alex Noren

10. Collin Morikawa

Strokes Gained: Approach

The next most important stat this week was Strokes Gained: Approach. This stat in my mind is all about who creates the most opportunities to score low. Here’s the top approach players in the field:

Top 10 in the Field

1. Scottie Scheffler

2. Corey Conners

3. Tom Hoge

4. Xander Schauffele

5. Tony Finau

6. Justin Thomas

7. Si Woo Kim

8. Shane Lowry

9. Lucas Glover

10. Akshay Bhatia

Strokes Gained: Putting

Strokes Gained: Putting again making an appearance in the top statistics this week, which had not been the case before starting this blog. This stat is really all about those that create opportunities with the flat stick. Unfortunately, when it comes to the Frequent Flyer section, this stat is not the biggest factor, but hopefully you can discern who in this list might putt their way into the mix.

Top 10 in the Field

1. Denny McCarthy

2. Peter Malnati

3. Billy Horschel

4. Taylor Pendrith

5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout

6. Mackenzie Hughes

7. Harris English

8. Sahith Theegala

9. Thomas Detry

10. Ben Griffin

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

The last key stat this week is Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Touch around the greens definitely played a role last week. These guys should be saving par and maybe holing scoring chances with their wedges:

Top 10 in the Field

1. Hideki Matsuyama

2. Scottie Scheffler

3. Justin Thomas

4. Mackenzie Hughes

5. Alex Noren

6. Jason Day

7. Tommy Fleetwood

8. Collin Morikawa

9. Russell Henley

10. Lucas Glover

Frequent Flyers

Frequent Flyer Runner-Ups

Two players (Alex Noren, Xander Schauffele) came in behind the winners with a Top-10 ranking in three of the five key stat categories. Here’s a quick breakdown for each of their chances and current forms:

Alex Noren

Well, here we go again. Alex Noren really let me down last week. But, he is still one of the most consistent players this season with four of his last five tournaments ending in a Top-25 finish including a 3rd place finish at the Byron Nelson. Noren ranks 5th in Scoring Average, 9th in SG: Tee to Green and 5th in SG: Around the Green. For our other key stats, Noren is ranked 17th in SG: Approach and 31st in SG: Putting. I am torn on this, most likely due to recency bias with my DFS lineup being destroyed by picking Noren instead of Rory last week. But, everything points to Noren falling back to his consistent mean and bouncing back this week as a true contender.

Xander Schauffele

Again, ground-breaking stuff from me this week: Xander Schauffele might be good at golf. His last five tournaments are all Top-25 finishes including of course the major win at the PGA Championship. Amongst the field, he ranks 2nd in Scoring Average, 2nd in SG: Tee to Green, and 4th in SG: Approach. For our other key stats, Xander comes in at 15th in SG: Putting and 13th in SG: Around the Green. It’s clear that Xander is a true contender in pretty much any field. The only concern you can find for him would be a potential major hangover.

Current Form Wild Cards

This is a new section for this week. I wanted to include the players that are not necessarily season-long stats leaders but in their last five tournaments have shown the stuff to be in contention. The PGA Tour leaderboard has a Current Form section which is extremely helpful for my purposes. In that section they keep track of three of the five key stats this week (SG:Approach, Around the Green, and Putting) as well as the player’s last five finishing places. One player I could have placed here but felt was a bit of a front-runner, which this page has a lot of, is Rory McIllroy. Here are two other players to keep an eye on based on their current form:

Collin Morikawa

Morikawa feels like he has been building towards something special recently. He ranks in the top-10 for his current form in SG: Around the Green and SG: Off the Tee. What really intrigues me with Morikawa is his last five finishes where his average finish is 11.2. He has three Top-10 finishes in his last five including two Top-5 finishes in his last two appearances. Morikawa is quickly becoming the front-runner he was a few years ago.

Russell Henley

Henley is another guy that feels like he is putting things together. He has four Top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments with an average placing of 17.4. He ranks in the top-10 in his Current Form for key stats SG: Approach and SG: Around the Green. Overall, Henley has felt like someone trying breakthrough as a star on the Tour. I do not know if he is quite at the consistency level to actually achieve that but his recent play is definitely intriguing for a potential DFS play this week.

Frequent Flyer Winners: Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas

Scottie Scheffler

Not really a big surprise. I feel like Scheffler is going to accrue a lot of Frequent Flyer miles for as long as I write this blog. In his last five tournaments he has five Top-10 finishes including two wins and four Top-5 finishes. The man is a machine, ranking 1st in Scoring Average, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, and 2nd in SG: Around the Green. For our other key stat, Scheffler ranks 39th in SG: Putting. The man’s only “weakness” is not sinking the long putts but he tends to be pretty close to the hole anyways. No need to say it, he’s a contender.

Justin Thomas

Thomas does not quite boast the resume that Scottie has, but kind of under the radar he has put together a solid season. His next leap is now stepping up and winning a big one. Amongst the field, JT ranks 10th in Scoring Average, 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 6th in SG: Approach, and 3rd in SG: Around the Green. For our other key stat, he ranks 70th in SG: Putting. It is the putter holding him back from being the dominant player he once was. If he finds the stroke, he will be dangerous.